Nearly a hundred people were killed and nearly two hundred injured in a bomb attack in the Iranian city of Kerman on Wednesday afternoon, Iranian state media said. The attack took place during a memorial service at the grave of Qassem Soleimani, the Iranian general who was killed by an American drone strike exactly four years ago.
An attack on that location is extremely sensitive, because Soleimani is revered as a national hero by the Iranian regime and, as commander of the Revolutionary Guards, was the informal head of the 'Axis of Resistance', a regional alliance against Israel and the US. The timing is also precarious: a day earlier, Israel killed Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri with a drone strike in the Lebanese capital Beirut. Arouri was considered Hamas's link to Iran.
This combination has led to wild speculation in Iran and elsewhere about possible Israeli involvement in the bombing, one of the deadliest in Iran in more than forty years. However, the Iranian regime has not yet officially placed the blame on Israel.
Iranian officials told state media that two bombs were left on the roadside near Soleimani's grave and detonated from a distance by “terrorists”, but did not specify who they were. The attack had not yet been claimed by anyone on Wednesday evening.
Most attacks in Iran in recent years were committed by Islamic State. Recently, this jihadist threat has mainly come from the Afghan branch of IS, the so-called Islamic State of Khorasan ('ISIS-K'). According to some analysts, the way in which Wednesday's attack was carried out points more to the work of ISIS-K than to that of Israel. Although it has carried out attacks in Iran, its approach has been much more targeted. Moreover, General Soleimani was not only the arch-enemy of Israel, but also of the Islamic State.
Fear of escalation
In any case, the Iranian regime will now want to show that it can bite back. That need, coupled with speculation about Israeli involvement, is raising fears of a possible regional escalation of the war in Gaza. Iran's allies, who cannot always contain Tehran, amplify that risk. For example, a spokesperson for the Houthi militia in Yemen, which has been attacking ships in the Red Sea for weeks, immediately linked the bombing in Iran to Iran's support for the 'anti-Israel resistance.'
The attack could also lead to domestic unrest in Iran. After a year of mass protests, the Iranian regime is not in a strong position. If the authorities do not quickly convey that they are firmly in control, this will not go unnoticed by the many Iranians who are waiting for the right moment to take to the streets again.
Update January 3, 10 p.m.: the death toll has been adjusted by the Iranian Minister of Health from 103 to 95. This has been adjusted above.
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