Nassim Nicholas Taleb is one of the most recognized philosophers in financial markets, for its trajectory in this universe and the development of several theories related to the world of investment. Among other things, the Lebanese has raised the ‘antifragile’ concept and, above all, built the theory of “black swans” in 2007, a concept that has rooted in the markets so that, in a few years, it has been Become a settled idea that all investors recognize: the danger of the unknown, of events practically impossible to predict, that have a huge impact. Now, Taleb, who advises the Universa Investments Risk Fund, He has opined on the fall that Nvidia actions have suffered this week, and leaves investors a warning: “This is just the beginning.”
The warning that Taleb has launched raises as an inevitable reality one of the main fears that investors have at this time: fever for artificial intelligence. The bags, especially the American, have lived two very positive years (the S&P 500 rises 58% since the beginning of 2023, and the Nasdaq 95%), animated, in part, by the enormous expectations deposited in the development of the artificial intelligence. This has caused Nvidia, a company not known for the large stock market until recent years, it has become the largest capitalized in history, since it has been discounted that its chips would be absolutely necessary for the development of the development of the AI.
The problem is that Deepseek and his AI has arrived as a typhoon, and has puts legs above the forecasts and expectations that many investors had. The key to the Chinese company is that it does not need enormously advanced chips to function, which has broken the paradigm in which the market had deposited its confidence, and its money, in recent years.
For Taleb, this event is going to be key to reconfiguring market assessments, and warns of the danger that now involves a company like Nvidia for investors: “This is only the principle,” explained the Lebanese philosopher in statements to statements to Bloomberg. “It is the principle of an adjustment of people to realitybecause now they are realizing that it is not invincible. There is already a small peck in the glass, “says Taleb.
It is striking that Taleb considers that the fall that Nvidia has suffered in the stock market this Monday is not enough, taking into account that it has been the largest loss of stock market capitalization that has been seen throughout the story, of almost 600,000 million dollars in a single day. Even so, Taleb believes that the worst is yet to come, and considers that the recoil in the firm’s titles can still be two or three times greater than the one that has occurred. If so, Nvidia would lose 1.6 billion dollars in capitalization, more than half of its bag size at the end of last week.
Taleb warnings are repeated; He considers that investors have been too focused on a single narrative, based on the company will be able to maintain total domain over artificial intelligence. In Taleb’s opinion, the decline in this Monday’s actions has been “very small,” as he explained to the agency.
The Lebanese philosopher and financial describes a reality that fits with the analyzes that have signed They will reap thanks to the AI. In Taleb’s opinion, too many investors have entered companies related to the new AI technology, without knowing very well how they work or have a solid thesis on their projection and possible success. In addition, it relates this situation to its concept of the ‘black swans’, since It has described companies in the technological sector as ‘Gray Swans’ At this time, and it emphasizes that investors are undervaluing the abrupt price movements that can be produced in these firms in a single stock market session.
All this describes an environment that fits with the formation of a bubble. Wall Street assessments have been worrying for many analysts for some time, with premiums of more than 20% in the assessment of future benefits against the historical average.
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