The military junta announced a new extension of the state of emergency decreed since it came to power in 2021, when it overthrew the democratic government of Aung San Suu Kyi in a coup. The political movement prevents the holding of the elections that were scheduled for 2023, which augurs the prolongation of the military in power and the institutional instability that the country has been experiencing for more than two years.
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The Myanmar National Defense and Security Council (NDSC) met on July 31 in the capital, Naypyidaw, to discuss the future of the state of emergency that was due to expire at the end of July and the outcome of the meeting will define the immediate course of the country: “The period of the state of emergency will be extended for another six months from August 1, 2023,” announced Myint Swe, head of the Armed Forces since 2021.
The extension of the state of emergency was justified by the military junta under two main axes: first, the pro-democratic opposition is accused of perpetrating “acts of terror”, which does not allow the exercise of sufficient and effective control by the State security apparatus, which leads to the second axis: the lack of conditions to carry out the elections scheduled for this year.
When in February of this year the military junta extended the state of emergency for the second time, the country lost hope of holding the elections in August 2023 as Mynt Swe and the NDSC had asserted the previous year. The new extension of the state of emergency further postpones the return of democracy to the Asian country and prolongs the stay in power of the military, which is becoming more and more entrenched in the Administration despite civil resistance.
The current Constitution in Myanmar establishes that elections must take place within six months after the end of the state of emergency. They cannot take place during the exceptional period since it is not possible to guarantee security and peace in the process; In other words, it is not possible to call elections until the primacy of democracy in the exercise can be guaranteed.
Four extensions of the state of emergency keep the country in a constitutional vacuum
A state of emergency in Myanmar was declared on February 1, 2021, when the military junta seized power by force. The validity of this exceptional condition, which empowers the Army to take additional control powers in the country, was perpetuated until February 1, 2022, however it was decided to extend the term for six more months (until July 2022), which was followed by another extension with application between August 2022 and February 2023.
In February 2023, an extra-constitutional extension of the state of emergency was announced, which was shaping up to be the last, accompanied by the promise of democratic elections.
The current Myanmar constitution establishes the possibility of decreeing a state of emergency under a series of conditions; in fact, the document regulates in detail the operation of the state of emergency in an exclusive chapter. The constitutional order dictates that the president has the legal capacity to decree a state of emergency when certain assumptions justify the exceptionality.
The specialized constitutional chapter rigorously contemplates the duration of exceptional conditions, establishing a maximum of one main declaration in force for one year and two possible extensions of six months each. The third and fourth extension of the state of emergency navigates on a terrain of unconstitutionality and legal obscurity that can contribute to the construction of a state of generalized ungovernability.
Myanmar, in the hands of the military since the 2021 coup
In the last electoral process that Myanmar went through in November 2020, Aung San Suu Kyi, candidate of the National League for Democracy (NLD) won a landslide victory; the same as in 2015, under the scrutiny of international observers. The vote was branded as fraudulent by the Army and, once it took power, the results were annulled.
According to sources close to former president Suu Kyi, the leader was transferred from prison and rehoused in a government building, which could be a political move by the Army in order to navigate the terrain towards the once again postponed elections. Despite Suu Kyi’s transfer, it is yet to be confirmed if the move will culminate in house arrest. The former president herself has been convicted of a variety of charges, for which she has been awarded up to 33 years in prison.
From February 2021 to date, the Army has not been able to achieve accurate control that allows it to govern the territory, which could be one of the reasons for the string of extensions to the state of emergency in two and a half years.
The main limitation of the Army in its claims to total control has been the opposition that emerged in the shadow of the coup in 2021, a pro-democratic resistance made up mostly of young people with no military experience that groups together under the names of the People’s Defense Forces ( PDF) and the Government of National Unity, made up of democratically elected former legislators who were deposed in the military coup; groups that are articulated together in a single opposition front, of which PDF performs the tasks of the armed wing.
In six months it will be three years since the coup against democracy in the Asian country, today without a clear solution to the conflict.
With AFP, Reuters, AP and EFE
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