With the withdrawal of Russia from the Black Sea grain agreement, not renewed by Moscow this Monday (17) and which for a year had allowed the export of food from Ukraine from the ports of the invaded country even with the war in progress , the world market predicts rising prices and human rights organizations fear an increase in hunger in several countries.
In view of the news, the prices of wheat, corn and soybeans have already risen on Monday. The agreement had been established by Russia and Ukraine a year ago, with mediation by the UN and Turkey, and had been extended twice, in March and May. While in force, it allowed the export of more than 32 tons of food from Ukraine to 45 countries on three continents.
Russia decided not to renew the commitment because a number of its demands were not met, such as the reconnection of its agricultural bank, Rosselkhozbank, to the SWIFT international banking system, the lifting of sanctions on spare parts for agricultural machinery, the unblocking of logistics and transport insurance and the unfreezing of assets.
Although Moscow has not directly linked the non-renewal of the agreement to the attack on the Crimean bridge, only a few hours separated the two events.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said on Monday that Russia’s decision “will deal a blow to those in need in every part” of the world.
“Ultimately, participating in these agreements is a choice, but hardships everywhere and developing countries have no choice. Hundreds of millions of people face hunger and consumers face a global cost of living crisis. They will pay the price.”
US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield said the Russian withdrawal demonstrates “what happens when a country decides to take all of humanity hostage”. “While Russia plays political games, the real people suffer,” she criticized.
In an interview with CNBC, analyst Peter Ceretti of consultancy Eurasia Group said that Russian shipments of grains will continue, and the end of the agreement will not completely stop Ukrainian exports via the Black Sea or through Europe.
“Going forward, however, the end of the grain deal will add to other upward pressures on food prices, such as drought in Europe and the onset of El Niño. The markets most affected by the end of the agreement will be the countries of North Africa and the Levant, which import large volumes of grain from the Black Sea region,” said the expert.
Last week, the regional emergency director for East Africa at the International Rescue Committee (IRC), Shashwat Saraf, had warned of the risks that non-renewal of the Black Sea agreement would pose for the region, whose agricultural production was seriously affected by droughts and floods.
“With approximately 80% of East Africa’s grain imported from Russia and Ukraine, more than 50 million people in the region are at risk of starvation and food prices have soared by nearly 40% this year,” he said in a statement.
Although Turkish President Recep Erdogan still believes in the possibility of getting his friend Vladimir Putin to return to the agreement, Timothy Ash, senior sovereign strategist at BlueBay Asset Management in London and an expert on Russia and Ukraine, said in an interview with The New York Times that the decision not to renew the commitment – which “will harm specific countries, dependent on these exports” – is already a reflection of the failed Wagner Group mutiny in June and the Russian president’s subsequent desire to show strength before the world.
“[Essa atitude] shows how weak Putin is after the Wagner coup attempt: he is desperate to gain whatever influence he can,” he argued. (With EFE Agency)
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