Minnesota and Oklahoma: the revolution of the NBA's 'outsiders' does not fit into the Christmas menu

Christmas Day is synonymous with the NBA. In a custom that dates back to 1947 — when the current American league had not yet been created, but one of its two precursors, the Basketball Association of America, already established games on December 25 —, each year confrontations are scheduled between the best teams on a prime date. This Monday, the biggest stars of the championship will face each other during Christmas Day, but the first third of the 2023-24 season has shown that cachet and collective performance are different issues. Equality and the team revolution outsiders have been the dominant trend, causing a paradoxical circumstance: Minnesota Timberwolves, first in the Western Conference, and Oklahoma City Thunder, third, will be the big absentees of the day despite having exceeded all expectations regarding their performance.

Except in the case of Boston and Milwaukee, these in the East, most of the teams that will participate in Christmas Day have started the season without much brilliance. The schedule has been adapted a few years ago to make it more friendly to the international public, so the marathon of games will start at 6:00 p.m., Spanish peninsular time, with a New York Knicks-Milwaukee Bucks. The current champion, Denver Nuggets, faces the Golden State Warriors in decline (8:30 p.m., Movistar+). The great classic in the American league, Lakers-Celtics, will measure the doubts of Los Angeles against the solidity of Boston (23.00, Movistar+). And to close the day, the runner-up, Miami Heat, faces the Philadelphia 76ers at 2:00, already in the early hours of the 26th in Spain, while two of the teams with the most offensive talent, Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns, will put the finishing touch at 4.30.

Although their absence clashes with their good performance, nothing suggested that Minnesota and Oklahoma would lead their conference if last season is taken as a reference. Without big signings, Minnesota has gone from saving the furniture at the end of the season to sneaking into some playoffs where they fell in the first round, to share the best record in the league (22-6) with Boston. The case of Oklahoma is similar. Last year they were tenth in the West and now, they are third with a surprising 18-9.

The season is long and it is possible that these teams reduce their performance in favor of others with more experience, but their good moment demonstrates the ability of the franchises to reinvent themselves and revolutionize the competition, even without the glamor of others with a larger market.

Minnesota Timberwolves: Gobert-Towns duo takes off in their second year

The improvement of the Minnesota Timberwolves is explained in a defensive key. The team has the best rating competition defensive —which measures how many points a team gives up per opposing possession—and opponents have their worst field goal percentages when playing the Wolves. Last season, the complicated operation in which the franchise squandered much of its rotation and four first rounds of draft in exchange for French center Rudy Gobert, he was set to fail due to his lack of compatibility with the team's star, Karl Anthony-Towns. Now, Gobert has recovered the level with which he won three Defensive Player of the Year awards in the Utah Jazz, and has resolved all doubts about his tandem with Towns in the interior game. In addition, he combines with his former Jazz teammate, Mike Conley, the team's top assist player with 6.3 per game.

On the other hand, the scoring consolidation of Anthony Edwards who averages 24.6 points per game establishes a balance between attack and defense with which they have already been able to beat the current champion, Denver Nuggets, the runner-up, Miami Heat, or the betting favorite, Boston Celtics.

Donald Higney, analyst at TheScore, adds the continuity of the group as another key. Statistically, the seven players with the most minutes played this season were already part of the squad last year, something “essential” to increase collective chemistry. For him, there are enough reasons to believe in the Timberwolves. “I think they can finish in the top four in the West, and even have a run in playoffs. In Minnesota they have only played playoffs in three of the last 20 seasons and have not passed the first round since 2004. I think this is the best opportunity since then to break their losing streak,” he points out.

Oklahoma City Thunder: young people fly on Shai's back

The Thunder's leap to the elite falls on the shoulders of their big-three: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and the rookie Chet Holmgren. After being selected as a point guard in the NBA's quintet of the year last season and leading Canada to its first medal in the FIBA ​​World Cup – he was the executioner of Spain – Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 30.7 points and leading the league in steals with 2.8 per game. Furthermore, thanks to the team's good performance, he is nominated as a candidate for MVP of the season.

The good work of young people is another cause. Rookie Chet Holmgren (center), who was unable to debut last year due to a serious injury, has dispelled all doubts about his physique with his mastery of all facets of the game with his 16.9 points and 2.8 blocks per game . Although all the focus is on the San Antonio Spurs rookie, Victor Wembanyama, the difference between the Thunder and a Spurs sunk in the last position of the table gives Holmgren an advantage in the race to be the rookie of the year. Forward Jalen Williams, a finalist for the best rookie award last season, continues to confirm his projection and averages 17 points.

After finishing tenth in the West in 22-23 with a 40-42 record, Higney estimates that the Thunder will be the team of playoffs this season. If the present looks good, the future in Oklahoma seems even brighter thanks to the transfer policy followed in recent years. And the team has the largest collection of first and second round selections in the world. draft in the history of the NBA (15 first rounds and 22 second rounds between now and 2030), obtained in the transfers of figures such as Paul George, Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul or Al Horford in recent seasons in exchange for players and future elections.

The mix of potential in the offices with the growth that the team has already experienced places the franchise in an enviable position. The question is whether they should maintain their reconstruction commitment based on young talent; or whether it would be worth sacrificing some of these selections of draft to sign another star that guarantees them competing for the ring immediately. For Higney, if the Thunder want to be champions, it will be “necessary” to sacrifice part of the loot in exchange for an established player. However, the analyst considers that it is worth giving the current version of the team a chance and seeing how far they are capable of going.

Even if they maintain their level, nothing guarantees that these franchises will fight for the championship. In the last five editions, the NBA has had five different champions (Toronto Raptors, Los Angeles Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets) and none had been the best in the regular phase. Although the players from Minnesota and Oklahoma will watch the Christmas Day on television, their purpose is clear: to continue leading the revolution of the little ones in their assault on the elite of world basketball.

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