The libertarian leader Javier Milei arrives at the Casa Rosada after winning over the Peronist Sergio Massa by a difference of around ten points, confirming a radical change in national politics, dominated by the center-left in the last 20 years. The ‘Lion’, as he is known, will take over a country with a deep and growing economic crisis, the main concern of Argentines. The pocketbook was the central reason that drove Milei to the polls, where he doubled his votes compared to the October general elections. Taking the proposals of the new head of state as a guide, Argentina faces a scenario not known since its return to democracy, with threats to its main social foundations: education and public health and the consensus on human rights.
The runoff held in Argentina on Sunday, November 19, established Javier Milei as the next president of the country, after surpassing by approximately ten points the official candidate and current Minister of Economy, the Peronist Sergio Massa.
The financial concerns of Argentines, with ups and downs in the last 20 years, ended up prevailing over the extremist speeches of the far-right candidate. With clear supremacy in the interior of the country, especially in key provinces such as Córdoba, Santa Fe and Mendoza, Milei obtained the necessary support to settle in the Casa Rosada as of December 10. The ruling party barely managed to prevail in Santiago del Estero and Formosa.
Milei’s growth compared to the October general elections, by almost doubling the number of votes, responds largely to the injection provided by the alliance with the right-wing coalition Together for Change, whose candidate, Patricia Bullrich, came third in the first lap.
The robust apparatus of Together for Change at the national level allowed the libertarian to maintain the favoritism of the people in the Argentine interior and reinforce aspects that he considered important, such as the control of votes.
For his part, the ruling party Massa was barely able to raise his ceiling by two million votes after his victory in the first round. Despite a moderate campaign, with a subdued discursive tone, far from the confrontation raised by Milei, and emphasizing the need for a national union, the poor perception of his management as Minister of Economy ended up weighing more at the polls. .
Milei’s victory puts an end to a political stage in Argentina, which will have an unprecedented turn to the extreme right. The leader of La Libertad Avanza will be the first president since the return to democracy, in 1983, with that ideology.
Although in the 1990s the country was presided over by the neoliberal Carlos Menem, of whom Milei highlights some economic policies, such as convertibility, the Riojan came to power as a Peronist candidate.
Just like Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil and Donald Trump in the United States, Milei responds to the phenomenon of right-wing populism. However, her meteoric rise in four years was a surprise, even to the Argentines themselves.
Commanding a party that had its electoral debut in the 2021 midterms, the libertarian leader capitalized on the attention of a society fed up with traditional politics after consecutive failures of Peronism and Macrism, with a worsening economic situation and that found in him a model alternative and unexplored country.
Within the successes of the construction of his narrative, Milei knew how to transform his lack of experience in public management, claiming his status as an ‘outsider’, an aspect that captivated the young audience.
Its popularity in that age group also justifies its high positive image ratings. Although some of her policies could harm them, such as Milei’s proposals on education, she was widely received by youth through social networks.
Like other right-wing populist leaders, his exploitation of platforms such as Instagram and TikTok gave him power of representation in those sectors, which were not reached by classic political spaces.
The defeat urges Peronism to think about a reconfiguration
Milei’s assumption also puts an abrupt end to the Kirchnerist era, blurred by the Government of Alberto Fernández, and to which Massa did not want to be attached during his campaign. This 180-degree turn will take Argentina down unprecedented paths at the political level since, with the exception of the right-wing government of Mauricio Macri (2015-2019), the last 20 years were governed by the Kirchners.
Opening the panorama, in the 40 years in which Argentina has lived in democracy, only 12 of them were not Peronist governments. To the four of Macri we must add the six of Raúl Alfonsín, between 1983 and 1989, and the two of Fernando De la Rúa (1999-2001), who had to interrupt his mandate and who was given continuity by the Peronist Eduardo Duhalde, until 2003.
As a primary effect of the electoral defeat, Peronism will have to refound itself and look for new leaders to cover the lack of representation in the electorate, now without Cristina Fernández as the cornerstone of the movement.
The defection of the former president in the period prior to the determination of candidates exposed the lack of alternatives within the party, whose members insisted on trying to convince their leader.
The fragmentation between those related to Kirchnerism and the Peronists who opposed the ‘K’ generated internal conflicts with results of fragile consensus, such as the case of Alberto Fernández, quickly reviled by his own members of the Government.
Under the same rule was the candidacy of the Massa – Agustín Rossi binomial, two characters who – regardless of aptitudes and performances in their political careers – did not end up conforming to all the Peronist factions.
The future of the long-standing block is uncertainty. The reelection of Governor Axel Kicillof in the province of Buenos Aires and his notable political powers put him at the top of the list of successors of Peronism, at least at this beginning of the refoundation.
What awaits the Milei government
Among the challenges that the leader of La Libertad Avanza will have to face in his next term, the main one is the economic crisis. With a high exchange rate (the ‘blue’ dollar is close to 1,000 Argentine pesos), an interannual inflation of more than 142% – they estimate that it will close the year around 180% – and poverty rates that are around 40%, the main mission aims to maneuver to improve the quality of life of Argentines.
In this context, the forecasts for income from gas exports from the new Néstor Kirchner gas pipeline – accompanied by the energy sovereignty that comes with abandoning imports – and the benefits of agriculture (destroyed in 2023 by an unexpected drought) aim to relieve a country with low levels of economic solvency and absence of reserves.
However, the imminent renegotiation of the terms of the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (the debt is 44 billion dollars) will imply an adjustment requested by the financial body, opening speculation about how much power to maneuver the country’s next leaders will have. to alleviate economic pressure.
The implementation of dollarization, the central axis of the libertarian electoral platform in economic matters, is a question. Analysts question the practicality and the effects it could bring, such as a rebound in inflation and a depreciation of the peso.
Another problem to solve will be governance. Without a majority in either chamber, the administration of Milei It must appeal to dialogue with other political spaces and democratic consensus to avoid blockage in Congress and the Senate.
However, the alliance between La Libertad Avanza (LLA) and Together for Change (JxC) opens the possibilities of the new ruling party. With both spaces united, it brings together 132 deputies – the quorum is 129 – in the Lower House. The luck is different in the Senate, where to achieve a majority of 37 it is not enough to unite spaces, since they only reach 28 representatives, a product of the 21 seats of JxC and the new seven senators of LLA.
An aspect to contemplate will also be the reaction of the citizens if the Milei government decides to advance some of the campaign proposals, such as health and public education, the repeal of article 14bis of the Constitution (which guarantees workers’ rights as the bonus, compensation and paid vacations) or the repeal of the right to abortion, among others.
The pressure of a society accustomed to taking to the streets to complain to its rulers or fight for rights is not an insignificant factor. Even more so in a framework of political saturation and economic asphyxiation, with the consequent loss of quality of life.
The unexpected controversy: memory, truth and justice?
One of the most discussed pillars throughout the campaign was the social consensus against the military dictatorship and its consequences. With the triumph of Milei and, above all, of his vice president Victoria Villarruel, the discussion about the legitimization of the acts perpetrated by the repressors between 1976 and 1983 will once again be on the table.
In a completely polarized country and where discord reigns in political matters, the repudiation of the military dictatorship was one of the few social consensuses reached and that was not discussed by any politician, regardless of party colors.
In recent weeks, the protection of human rights and debates about the effects of the dictatorship have been put in check. Civil concerns deepened after Milei’s demands for Margaret Thatcher – an indispensable protagonist in Argentina’s defeat in the Malvinas War – and Villarruel’s constant benevolent comments about the military who took power in the seventies and generated the stage darkest in the South American country, with forced disappearances of 30,000 people, theft of babies, torture and rape, among other events.
It is still unknown what will happen to the trials opened to alleged repressors of the dictatorship, what will happen to the sentences in force for other convicts and how civilian support for the military that remained hidden will revive. “Never Again” was the phrase that was perpetuated in Argentina for decades as a motto to not allow the darkest part of modern history to be forgotten and repeated and that now many Argentines believe should be defended.
With local media
#Mileis #triumph #leads #Argentina #scenario #return #democracy