The weekend of the first Grand Prix of 2024 saw a particularly interesting second free practice session. Beyond curiosity, there were more than one ideas apparently outside of expectations that emerged and to focus on, both in the qualifying simulations and in the race pace tests
On the flying lap it is a Mercedes in form but with an engine
Starting from the flying lap simulations, a surprising Mercedes excelled with Lewis Hamilton in first position and George Russell in second. Not only was the result surprising, but also the way it arrived, with Hamilton extremely aggressive from the first lap, in which he left abysmal gaps over the competition who were still looking for optimal balance with the softer tyre. Be careful, however, as the data also reveals some peculiarities about the performance of the W15. First of all, the sprint speed is high and is achieved by Hamilton generally well ahead of the competition. Obviously what can contribute to this result is a lack of aerodynamic load and an engine with a more advanced mapping, and looking at the entire graph it seems that there is a combination of the two things. We can still say little about the power unit, as it is necessary to wait for qualifying, while regarding the aerodynamic load we cannot help but notice Hamilton's cornering speeds tend to be lower than his competition. It seems that the set-up brought to the track by the Brackley team, extremely low on the asphalt, has brought good results from the point of view of pure speed, but perhaps without yet generating the full amount of aerodynamic load that the car would need. The passage to turns 5-6-7, the so-called “snake”, somewhat seals a fast Hamilton but forced not to force changes in direction. Obviously we need to understand to what extent this can have an impact on the race pace and whether these differences will remain such when the competition also increases with the level of power supplied by the Power Unit in qualifying. From the graph we also notice a Ferrari of Sainz exactly on the opposite front compared to Mercedes: little top speed but a truly excellent speed in practically all the corners of the track, a truly excellent signal with respect to the load level and the overall balance of the car.
Ferrari in trouble when braking
Looking at the graph, we can see a certain difficulty in the second braking phase for Sainz, and combining this difficulty with the numerous lock-ups seen by Leclerc, we could say that two clues prove it and that the Maranello team's drivers are struggling to manage the SF24 in the moment in which they face a violent braking. The observation in this sense by our Carlo Platella is truly brilliant and interesting, as he pointed out that one of the most significant mechanical changes on Ferrari's car this year is the decidedly more “anti-dive” setting of the front suspension, with a behavior of the car which therefore both Leclerc and Sainz must learn to manage. It is no coincidence that the greatest loss for Sainz in this case occurs in the second part of braking, the one in which the aerodynamics lose much of their effectiveness on the car and the mechanical component begins to prevail. It will undoubtedly be one of the magnifying glasses that we will use in the next sessions.
RedBull not brilliant but very conservative, Alonso is trying to resist for now
Finally, on the flying lap Max Verstappen certainly did not shine, not so much due to lack of speed, but due to what appeared to be an apparent lack of confidence with the new car in critical phases such as braking and some cornering sections. Also in this case, the change in the braking system could restore sensations to the three-time world champion driver who still needs to learn to manage effectively as done in recent seasons. In general, however, Red Bull certainly appeared very conservative in many aspects, such as the use of the Power Unit's power curve and the guidance of the drivers, which is why we shouldn't be too fooled by the free practice rankings. At Aston Martin, Fernando Alonso also achieved good results for all the sessions, although the car from Stroll's team does not yet appear to be at the level of last season, although the Asturian is managing to drive it in a decidedly effective manner even in the most difficult sections. track complexes.
Race pace: RedBull in front, then Ferrari and Mercedes
As regards the race pace simulations, it is interesting to note first of all how everyone carried out the test with a set of soft tyres, therefore in the most complicated conditions in view of the race. Among these, Leclerc had already made more than one attempt on the simulation set of tyres, and therefore started from a slight disadvantage compared to the competition who only had one attempt for each set of tyres. As regards the times and their progression, in this case it is quite clear that Red Bull is the best in terms of race pace, even if Verstappen himself had to carry out more than one “cool-down lap” within the stint to keep rear tire temperatures under control. As an average of lap times in the stint, Verstappen showed an advantage of around 1 tenth over Perez and less than 2 over Piastri, between 3 and 4 tenths over Mercedes, Russell and Leclerc, with Sainz and Alonso much further back beyond the half a second. What we find interesting, however, is, in this case, the average telemetry graph, a peculiarity that we developed last season and which allows us to create an “average lap” with the data of all the laps of the pace tests and consequently to do comparisons on this front too. We notice how Sainz is regularly much slower on the straight but also decidedly faster in most of the corners, especially the 6th and the long 11, 12 and 13, giving us great hope from the point of view of the aerodynamic setup of the SF24. The advantage in these corners is often canceled out by the braking difficulties described above, but which, hopefully, will be addressed and resolved in a short time. Leclerc for his part closes this special ranking 2 tenths behind Verstappen, with half a tenth ahead of Hamilton and Russell, in what seems like a plausible scale of values. McLaren, on the other hand, was more difficult to decipher. If Norris's findings appear to be reliable based on what we saw both in the tests and in the first two free practice sessions, with the Englishman 3 tenths per lap behind Verstappen, Oscar Piastri's very long simulation would even seem to compete with that of Redbull, which leaves some doubt about the quantity of fuel taken on board by the Australian.
In conclusion therefore, the impression is that the lack of testing is making itself felt and that everyone needs to go around to become more familiar with some peculiar aspects of each single-seater. In this situation, Verstappen still stands out in terms of race pace, but for now his advantage is not as immense as one might have expected, even though the Dutchman probably still has a lot to extract from his pocket. Mercedes appeared in great shape on the flying lap, but pay attention to the race pace, especially on medium and hard compounds, while Ferrari overall confirmed many points that we had noticed in the tests, in particular on the new aerodynamic concept which seems to carry a level of downforce decidedly high. We therefore just have to wait for the first qualifying to see what the first verdicts of this season will be.
#Mercedes #surprises #RedBull #balance #race #pace
