2024 begins with the weight of being a decisive year for Venezuela. The pieces will move with the objective of holding a presidential election with guarantees for the opposition, which will allow for peaceful political change and straighten out the prolonged crisis that the country is going through. Nicolás Maduro, in his first statements of the year, has returned to the idea that Chavismo's presidential candidate is not yet defined, an issue that has been discussed in different circles of power in the face of the challenge that the Government faces. 85% of the country wants a change, according to the most recent surveys carried out by Delphos.
“I am not me, I am part of a team: the Military Political High Command of the Revolution,” the president said on January 1 in an interview with the Frenchman Ignacio Ramonet, who has already become part of the Christmas traditions of the Government. “It is premature to say that I will be Chavismo's candidate for the elections. The year is just beginning. Only God knows. No Diosdado… God! (jokes). We hope that the electoral scenarios of the process that will take place will be defined, and I am sure that, with God's blessing, we will make the best decision.”
Maduro is a weight that Chavismo drags in its continuity in power. With one of the lowest popularity ratings of his mandate, which does not reach 20% approval, in recent months speculation about the appearance of new successors for Hugo Chávez's successor has gained strength after a season of internal purges. and redefinitions of the power groups within the ruling bloc that, in moments of crisis, tends to flatten its internal frictions and act monolithically.
In his statements with Ramonet, Maduro goes against the current of the usual Maduro, who is constantly campaigning and who, with the economy and the country in ruins, has managed to remain stable and maintain the fragile balance of powers within Chavismo. Although he says that the decision has not been made, Maduro is the virtual candidate and in that role he has become stronger after having achieved an achievement by resuming direct dialogue with the United States since the secret talks in Doha, which promoted the agreements of Barbados, the easing of oil sanctions and the release of a handful of American and Venezuelan political prisoners in an exchange for Colombian businessman Alex Saab, a key player in Maduro's power structure, who was detained in Miami on money laundering charges. of money.
Even so, there are tendencies within Chavismo-Madurismo that do not see it clearly. The governor of the State of Carabobo, Rafael Lacava, an ally of Maduro, has begun to appear in the polls. Maduro put him in charge of the renewal of trade relations with China and last November he signed agreements in Shanghai on behalf of the Venezuelan State. There, Lacava gave clues to the shift that Chavismo intends: a transition towards the Chinese model, with economic opening under serious political restrictions.
There are other names such as that of Héctor Rodríguez, governor of the Miranda State, a figure of the youth of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela on whom an epic of a possible dolphin or renewing successor has been built. He is close to Maduro, who recently thanked him for his efforts in freeing Saab as a member of the negotiating delegation with the opposition. Rodríguez has also recently founded a party with environmentalist intentions outside of PSUV, which has ended up swallowing and persecuting other organizations that come from Chavismo and supported it for years and that are now on the other side like the Communist Party of Venezuela.
Other alternative figures that have entered the discussion are the brothers Jorge and Delcy Rodríguez, head of Parliament and vice president of Maduro, who have gained prominence in this new stage in which the Government has managed to reconnect with the world. There has also been talk of contrasting the opposition candidate María Corina Machado, chosen with 92% of the votes in the primaries, against another woman, who in this case would be Delcy Rodríguez. In the shadow of these profiles remains Diosdado Cabello.
Given this panorama, which includes internal pressures on the durability of Chavismo as an idea, Maduro's statement about the uncertainty of his candidacy is a provocation that has intentions in different dimensions, says political scientist and analyst Nicmer Evans: “One dimension is measuring the political pulse and the reaction of certain actors, to see if there is any advanced player as a result of the possibility that it is believed that he is not going to be a candidate.”
There are objective conditions to evaluate if he is going to be the candidate against María Corina Machado, who has a 70-point advantage in almost all the polls, adds Evans. The lawsuit filed by the opposition leader to the Supreme Court to demand his disqualification has not been answered, although the deadlines have already been met. Even without a decision, Machado said in a message broadcast on his social networks on January 1: “If they repress and touch one, another will reinforce him and the task will be done, because there are millions of us.”
Maduro has made an important communication display in recent months, launching two new television programs in which he participates with his wife, Cilia Flores. He has focused on attracting young people, has brought TikTokers with millions of followers to television and is trying to get a generation to start laughing at his jokes. The idea that circulates that Maduro could sacrifice his position in exchange for a retirement in good fight, exhausted by years of struggle, or for the greater good of sustaining the revolution collides with the ways that his government has had. . “People who govern in an autocratic manner as Maduro has governed do not have that angel of not wanting to preserve power. I doubt that there is that vocation in the presidential couple and here I include Cilia Flores, who is someone who also pulls the strings,” says Evans.
In addition to being able to condition Machado's own participation in the 2024 presidential elections, Maduro has already shown the cards he can continue to play this year to ensure his permanence in power, particularly in the dialogue with the United States. “The Jocker,” says Evans, what he is counting on now is the territorial conflict that he has activated with Guyana over the territory of Essequibo. An issue that he could exacerbate to the point of suspending the elections scheduled for the end of this year, depending on how rocky the electoral road turns out to be.
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