In an eventual 2nd round, PT would win with 54% of the votes; current president scores 36%
the former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leads the electoral race with 44% of the voting intentions, according to a BTG Pactual/FSB poll released this Monday (25.Jul.2022). The president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) is in 2nd place, with 31%. Here’s the intact of the survey (2 MB).
The institute heard 2,000 voters by telephone from July 22 to 24, 2022. The poll was registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under the number BR-05938/2022. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points. The confidence interval is 95%. The research was contracted by Banco BTG Pactual for R$ 128,957.83.
Following Lula and Bolsonaro are:
Felipe D’Ávila (New), Jose Maria Eymael (DC), Vera Lúcia (PSTU), Sofia Manzano (PCB), Luciano Bivar (União Brasil) and Leonardo Péricles (UP) did not score. According to the survey, together they add up to 1%.
Those who would not vote for any of the candidates presented add up to 5%. Another 2% said they would vote blank or null and 3% did not know how to respond.
2nd TURN
The research simulated several scenarios in the 2nd round. In a confrontation between Lula and Bolsonaro, the PT has 54% of the votes. The current Chief Executive has 36%.
Here are the 2nd round scenarios tested by the BTG/FSB survey:
Lula vs Bolsonaro:
- Squid – 54%;
- Bolsonaro – 36%;
- none – 4%;
- blank/null – 3%;
- do not know or did not answer – 2%.
Lula vs Ciro Gomes:
- Squid – 48%;
- Ciro Gomes – 32%;
- none – 12%;
- blank/null – 6%;
- do not know or did not answer – 2%.
Bolsonaro vs Ciro Gomes:
- Ciro Gomes – 49%;
- Bolsonaro – 38%;
- none – 7%;
- blank/null – 4%;
- do not know or did not answer – 1%.
Lula vs Simone Tebet:
- Squid – 54%;
- Simone Tebet – 25%;
- none – 13%;
- blank/null – 6%;
- do not know or did not answer – 2%.
Bolsonaro vs Simone Tebet:
- Simone Tebet – 41%;
- Bolsonaro – 41%;
- none – 11%;
- blank/null – 4%;
- do not know or did not answer – 2%.
POWERDATA
Search PowerDate held from July 17 to 19 shows Lula with 43% of voting intentions against 37% for Bolsonaro.
In an eventual 2nd round between the 2, Lula would win with 51% of the votes. Bolsonaro scores 38%.
The survey was carried out by PowerDategroup company Power 360 Journalism, with its own resources. Data were collected from July 17 to 19, 2022, through calls to cell phones and landlines. There were 3,000 interviews in 309 municipalities in the 27 units of the Federation. The margin of error is 2 percentage points. The confidence interval is 95%. The TSE registration is BR-07122/2022.
RESEARCH AGGREGATOR
O Power 360 maintains a collection with thousands of surveys with known methodologies and on which it was possible to verify the origin of the information. There have been studies carried out since the 2000 municipal elections. This is the largest and longest-running survey of electoral research available on the Brazilian internet.
The database is interactive and allows you to follow the progress of each candidate. access the Research Aggregator clicking here.
The research information began to be compiled by journalist Fernando Rodrigues, editorial director of the Power 360on its website, in the year 2000. To access the old page with the surveys, click here.
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