The president of the Dominican Republic, Luis Abinader, is a rarity in Latin America: a popular ruler who appears to be on track for re-election this year. With nearly 70% approval and an advantage of about 25 points over his closest competitor in the polls, what is his secret? Some reasons are quite clear.
Abinader, 56, took office in August 2020, just in time for the economic boom led by foreign tourists who considered (and continue to consider) Dominican beaches an ideal getaway after the pandemic. After contracting 7% in 2020, the Dominican economy rebounded to 12% growth in 2021, 5% in 2022 and 2.4% in 2023. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently classified the Dominican Republic as the country in Latin America where the standard of living increases most rapidly.
A former tourism industry executive, Abinader attributes his success to a balanced approach in a region characterized by the left-right divide. “We have the formula of being pro-business, but we are also strong in social and transparency programs,” he told Americas Quarterly (AQ) in an interview during a recent trip to Washington.
Dominicans consider economic stability to be the star achievement of Abinader's mandate, according to a survey conducted in October by Gallup and RCC Media. His increasingly tough stance on relations with Haiti, a country in crisis with which the Dominican Republic shares a border, has also earned him considerable public support in the country, as well as criticism from human rights organizations. .
But the main reason Abinader won the presidency is because of an issue where some critics say he still has work to do: the fight against corruption.
Old data problem
Abinader's predecessors were rocked by numerous corruption scandals, including one involving the Brazilian construction company Odebrecht. Mass protests against corruption broke out in 2017, creating a kind of before and after brand in Dominican politics. On issues of public corruption, “there has been an awakening of civil society… there is more organized participation,” said Claudia de Windt, an international lawyer from the Dominican Republic. Abinader made the fight against corruption a central element of his campaign and, once in office, appointed a respected former Supreme Court judge, Miriam Germán Brito, attorney general. She has overseen extensive corruption investigations with catchy names reminiscent of those in other parts of the region, such as Operation Anti-Octopus, Operation Squid, Case Coral and Case 5G.
The results have not been delayed. Thanks to the investigations, the authorities have caught several senior officials of the Danilo Medina administration (2012-2020), including former Finance Minister Donald Guerrero and former Attorney General Jean Alain Rodríguez. Guerrero was accused of orchestrating a scheme of irregular payments for land expropriated through forced expropriation. Rodríguez was accused of having diverted funds from the Prosecutor's Office to finance a group that supported his own presidential ambitions. Both Guerrero and Rodríguez have denied the charges against them. Likewise, former President Medina himself has not been accused in these investigations.
These processes and others have revived memories of the anti-corruption movement that swept through much of Latin America starting in 2010, but which lost strength at the end of the decade due to accusations of unequal application of justice, lawfare or malpractice by the Prosecutor's Office. in places like Brazil and Colombia. Whether Abinader can move beyond these accusations and bring about lasting improvement in the rule of law in a second term is probably the biggest question facing his presidency today.
Anti-corruption fight
In some ways, Abinader's push appears to have taken into account the lessons of previous anti-corruption initiatives in Latin America. Some reforms appear designed to give prosecutors more tools, rather than simply focusing on spectacular, headline-grabbing investigations.
For example, the passage of a civil forfeiture law in 2022, allowing the state to recover stolen assets, was applauded by anti-corruption experts and received explicit praise from the US State Department, which called it “great.” achievement”.
The Dominican Republic has shown notable improvement in the Capacity to Combat Corruption Index, a measure of the capacity of Latin American countries to detect, punish and prevent corruption, prepared by Control Risks and AS/COA (the organization that publishes AQ ). In 2020 it ranked third to last out of 15 countries measured, with a score of 3.26. In the 2023 edition, the Dominican Republic ranked fifth, with a score of 5.42.
Regarding anti-corruption efforts, “the difference is enormous” under the current government, Paola Romero, a lawyer and specialist in the fight against money laundering, told AQ, highlighting the appointment of compliance officers to oversee public procurement. in all government ministries. “It's been a big step,” she added.
Some observers have complained, however, about the slow and unequal application of justice. As in other countries, the use of preventive detention of accused persons has been a point of contention. In November, the UN Working Group on Arbitrary Detentions declared the detention of Jean Alain Rodríguez “arbitrary” and called for his release. According to the Dominican press, it took the Public Ministry six months to read the more than 12,000 pages of evidence it had in its possession in the investigation called the Medusa Case. Donald Guerrero was released from pretrial detention in November.
The Dominican opposition has harshly criticized the way the fight against corruption has been carried out under Abinader, pointing to the fact that investigations have focused on officials from parties other than the president's, the Modern Revolutionary Party (Partido Revolucionario Moderno). PRM). “They are using the fight against corruption as a political weapon,” said José Dantés, an official with the opposition Dominican Liberation Party (PLD), in an interview on Dominican television.
It is true that no important official in Abinader's government has been prosecuted for corruption, although they have suffered political consequences once the accusations come to light. In August 2022, Abinader's chief of staff, Lisandro Macarulla, resigned after his name appeared related to the investigation of an alleged payment scheme coordinated by Jean Alain Rodríguez.
Macarulla has not been formally charged with any crime. And in November 2023, Hugo Beras, head of a government transportation entity, requested unpaid leave following media reports of alleged administrative corruption in a traffic light contract (Beras denies any wrongdoing).
Some analysts agree that for real progress to occur, the president must also look within his own government. “Now is the time for Abinader to take his fight against corruption to the next level and start looking inward,” said Geovanny Vicente-Romero, a Washington-based political strategist. Meanwhile, efforts to strengthen the independence of the Prosecutor's Office through a constitutional amendment, one of the administration's main goals, have stalled in Congress, where his party lacks the necessary supermajority.
Asked if the culture around high-level corruption has changed, Abinader responded: “I think it has started to change. There is always the risk of going back,” he told AQ. “That's why I want the attorney general to be independent on a constitutional basis.”
Other successes
Abinader's election in 2020 fits neatly into several regional trends: the wave of votes against establishment parties in Latin America. The PLD had governed the country for 16 years in a row with Leonel Fernández (2004-2012) and then with Danilo Medina. Fernández had also been president from 1996 to 2000.
On the other hand, Abinader has been able to preserve public support and, according to analysts, build credibility in his own figure, unlike Gustavo Petro (Colombia) and Gabriel Boric (Chile), who were elected in a wave of reaction against the same as always in their countries and who have seen their approval erode.
Abinader's government is often seen as competently managing the pandemic, distributing vaccines quickly compared to its counterparts. While other tourist centers suffered the effects of the pandemic, the Dominican industry emerged stronger than ever, in part thanks to an approach that prioritized national vaccination and did not require quarantine or proof of vaccination for tourists arriving after the pandemic. .
“What we have done is be in favor of employment, increasing social spending,” Abinader told AQ. According to the IMF, the Dominican Republic's spending on social benefits has gone from 1.3% of GDP in 2019 to 1.6% in 2022, after a rebound to 4.2% in 2020.
A key issue in domestic politics has been the spillover of the worsening crisis in Haiti and the tensions in the Haitian-Dominican bilateral relationship. The long-established flow of Haitians into the Dominican Republic has intensified amid political uncertainty and gang violence. As of June 2023, around a third of births in Dominican hospitals have Haitian women as mothers.
In September, the border became a hot political issue when the Haitian government announced its support for the construction of a canal that would divert water from the Masacre River, which Haiti shares with the Dominican Republic. In the ensuing controversy, Abinader took a firm stance, closing the borders for almost a month, at a cost to the local economy on both sides of the border, and suspending the issuance of visas to Haitian citizens.
On the eve of the presidential elections in May (19) of this year, the border crisis has become a point of political controversy. Fernández, candidate of the Fuerza del Pueblo party, criticized Abinader for the closure of the border, alleging its effects on the economy. Abel Martínez, mayor of Santiago de los Caballeros, the second city of the Dominican Republic, who is the PLD candidate, said that border policy should be directed by a committee of experts from which Abinader should recuse himself to avoid politicizing the issue. . Abinader expressed hope that the international security support mission, led by Kenya and authorized by the United Nations and currently blocked by a court appeal in Kenya, “can bring peace” to Haiti.
Asked about his government's policy regarding Haiti, Abinader told AQ: “What we are doing is organizing immigration. We have done a lot for Haiti. But we can't do more, because we are not a rich country.”
NICK BURNS
AMERICAS QUARTERLY Editor and CMS
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