Genoa – The barrier is solid and effective and any data available confirms it. But better not to lose sight of possible cracks. Especially with the arrival of the cold season which, (here some graphic artists who photograph the situation in real time), brings with it a physiological increase in cases.
And then the wall of the anti Covid-19 vaccination – which has reduced the impacts of the Delta variant and is making Italians experience a decidedly calmer autumn than last one – must be carefully monitored, especially in those gaps in which the virus could wedge itself more ease.
That is to say the faults opened by the unvaccinated and the fissures represented by the slice of the population it has completed the cycle for more than 6 months, a period after which the effectiveness of the protection, according to the studies, tends to become lower.
But how large are these cracks? Let’s see it with the help of numbers and graphs.
If you don’t see the graph click here: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/7787780/
The unvaccinated
As the graph above shows, the first and main gateway for SARS-Cov-2 is obviously represented by that portion of the Ligurian population that has not yet been vaccinated, not even with a dose (in red in the display). As of November 10, it is about 347 thousand residents, that is just under one in four Ligurians. The data includes children under 12 who cannot yet get vaccinated (but who will probably be able to do so in 2022) but also large slices of thirty, forty and fifty year olds.
In short, many adults and (not) vaccinated.
Will they change their minds? Hard to imagine. The Green pass effect seems to have vanished, as revealed by the trend of the first doses: never so few since the beginning of the vaccination campaign.
If you don’t see the graph click here: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/7786973/
Everything suggests that it will be necessary to live with a considerable share of reluctant people. Except for the introduction of the vaccination obligation or, but no one hopes it, that a new resurgence of the virus does not change the benefit-risk calculation of some of them, causing them to change their mind. Fear, as we know, is a powerful engine of action.
Preparation of vaccine doses, archive photo
Vaccinated for more than six months
Less worrying about the spread of the pandemic, but in some respects more complicated to manage and quantify, is the question of the third dose. As is known, anti-Covid vaccines show a decrease in efficacy over time which tends to be more significant beyond six months from the completion of the vaccination cycle.
This does not mean that the protection immediately disappears, nor that it diminishes for everyone equally (there are also differences between vaccine and vaccine). Except that – as the case of Israel shows – after this period it is better to reinforce the defenses with a call, especially in the groups most at risk of serious consequences from Covid, the elderly.
But how many Ligurians have completed the vaccination cycle (one dose for those who received the vaccine produced by Johnson & Johnson, two doses for the others) for over 6 months? According to the elaborations of XIX century on the data of the Ministry of Health in this condition as of November 9 there are approximately 225 thousand residents (represented by the blue icons in the graph above).
To stem the decline in protection the only strategy is to intensify the third dose campaign, which the government has just extended to forty-year-olds.
The doses of the booster in our region are on the rise (more than 2,800 daily doses on average in the last seven days) but the pace, to experience a calmer winter, must be decidedly accelerated.
If you don’t see the graph click here: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/7787053/
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