Libya.. new tensions
Libya has entered a new chapter of the conflict, the major title of which is more disagreements, and even the possibility of heading towards a scenario of a return to security confrontations at a time when the Libyan people were looking forward to achieving a real breakthrough in the current scene and its paths in light of the movements of the actors in the crisis to hold elections, as the Libyan Parliament described The recent bombardment of Zawiya is a settling of political scores, and not to combat smuggling, as is reported, as the government in Tripoli announced its responsibility for directing air strikes against the hideouts of fuel smuggling gangs, and new clashes took place between the forces of the deterrence apparatus and the 444th Brigade loyal to the Government of National Unity, in Separate areas in the center of Tripoli, in response to the arrest of one of the commanders of the 444th Brigade, which is supervised by Mahmoud Hamzah, under the command of Abdul Raouf Kara, amid military build-ups from both sides, which indicates, in its entirety, that the Libyan crisis is escalating in light of the continuing political division. This security tension in Tripoli reflects the size of the dilemma that Libya suffers from, in light of the government-backed armed militias’ control over aspects of life in Tripoli and the rest of the western cities.
In fact, the real goal of the security operation cannot be ruled out, and its confinement to the desire of Prime Minister Abdel Hamid al-Dabiba to eliminate an armed force present in the “Zawiya” region, as well as in the “Zintan” region, and it was reported that it was about to launch a lightning military attack to remove his government, in addition to the outbreak of a conflict in the region. It would be a good excuse for the bear not to proceed with the elections.
The launch of the military operation coincided with a political movement that was evident in the remarkable rapprochement between al-Dabaiba and Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, as information circulated that a cabinet reshuffle was imminent in the national unity government as a result of the two parties’ rapprochement, and the alliance of “Haftar” and the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Aguila Saleh, and the Prime Minister-designate from the parliament, Fathi Bashagha, cracked. , as a result of the latter stopping work and assigning the Minister of Planning and Finance, Osama Hammad, in his government, with the duties of prime minister. In addition to the renewed demands of the House of Representatives and the state to form a new government announced by the joint committee to prepare election laws mandated by both houses (6 + 6), which restored hope for the possibility of unifying Libya and overcoming the political stalemate.
In this context of new developments, several critical developments lie; The most important of which is the continuation of the work of the Special Representative of the Secretary-General of the United Nations in Libya, Abdullah Batili, in partnership with Turkey, where the first plenary session was held inside Libya, for the security working group emanating from the international follow-up committee of the Berlin process, with the aim of reaching consensus among the concerned member states on the Libyan crisis. , and providing an international umbrella to protect the Libyan-Libyan talks on the future of Libya, and the Special Representative’s assurance that serious challenges remain before Libya’s march towards elections, including ensuring a safe environment, addressing the dilemma of armed formations, advancing national reconciliation and transitional justice, in addition to calling for a solution Militias, expelling mercenaries, and unifying state institutions, including the military, to confront the phenomenon of arms chaos.
It is clear, then, that the Libyan political elite and non-state armed actors are generally dissatisfied with the status quo, given that levels of violence are escalating with the rise in global energy prices and its impact on the Libyan interior. Batelli had proposed a plan to form a high-level passing committee consisting of The various Libyan components, bodies, and forces are in charge of setting a constitutional rule, drafting election laws, and defining a road map after confirming the failure of the House of Representatives and the state to accomplish this task, before he was forced to back down after approving the constitutional amendment, and thus the UN envoy has recognized the eligibility of the House of Representatives and the state. By continuing to lead the political process from its legislative aspects, he also recognized the committee (6 + 6) formed by both chambers to resolve contentious points related to election laws.
In a remarkable development, Libyan parties began searching for possible alternatives to assuming power, in light of the blockage of the political horizon, amid calls for a return to the Constitution of Independence and the adoption of a monarchy to end the conflict between the parties.
Supporters of the return to the monarchy in Libya believe that this option not only ends the struggle for power, but also resolves the state of the constitutional vacuum that Libya is experiencing, and was one of the reasons for the stumbling of the electoral process, especially with the rejection of most political parties of the draft of the new constitution that was completed by the drafting committee. in 2017.
In general, what is happening in Libya in terms of scenes and phased developments is an important and important difference in the search for new consensuses that combine previous options and proposed references that have already been dealt with, and the failure of the parties to the equation to abide by them, which indicates several overlapping paths of It is difficult to unify its system and deal with its provisions.
* Writer specializing in strategic affairs.
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