Ahmed Murad (Beirut, Cairo)
Lebanon is going through one of the most difficult political crises, in light of the faltering presence of a “consensual candidate” for the presidency, in conjunction with the escalation of differences that impede the formation of a new government, which threatens a double political vacuum at the presidential and governmental levels.
Experts and analysts confirmed to Al-Ittihad that Lebanon is moving at a certain pace towards a vacuum in the position of the Presidency of the Republic, and there are no signs of achieving the presidential or governmental elections, pointing out that the situation will get worse and more complicated until conducive conditions are ripe that will reflect on the Lebanese situation.
Youssef Diab, a Lebanese political analyst, told Al-Ittihad that the indicators and data available on the scene indicate that Lebanon is going into a political vacuum, at the presidential and governmental levels, and there are no signs of achieving either of the two benefits, especially with the increasing complexities of the internal situation. .
Lebanon entered the constitutional deadline set for the election of a new president on September 1st, in light of the faltering presence of a “consensual candidate”, in conjunction with disputes hampering the formation of the caretaker government assigned to be formed by Najib Mikati, since last June 23.
According to Article 73 of the Constitution, the stage of electing a new president of the republic begins at least one month or two months before the end of the president’s term, when the House of Representatives meets at the invitation of its president to elect the new president.
The Lebanese political analyst stressed that there is no possibility to form a new government before the end of the term of President Michel Aoun, which expires on October 31, in light of the absence of an agreement between the parliamentary blocs on a specific candidate to occupy the presidential position, and therefore Lebanon is heading towards a vacuum in the position of Presidency.
Diab indicated that the presidential vacuum will lead, by virtue of the constitution, to transfer the powers of the president to the Council of Ministers, which is now represented by the resigned caretaker government led by Najib Mikati, which increases the complexity and division of the situation.
Diab explained that the transfer of the powers of the President of the Republic to a caretaker government increases the chasm of the political division in Lebanon, especially since the allies and team of President Aoun refuse to recognize this resigned government, and consider it unconstitutional and illegitimate, and it cannot take over the duties of the President, and therefore they will boycott it by withdrawing Ministers belonging to them, and it may reach the point of preventing them from exercising their administrative and political functions.
Diab believes that the opposition of the president’s allies and team to transferring his powers to the caretaker government will not change anything on the ground, and the Mikati government will assume responsibility for managing the country until a new president is elected, and after that a new government is formed, but until these two requirements are achieved, the country will go through a period political vacuum.
Aoun had assumed the presidency of the Lebanese Republic on the 31st of October 2016, after a presidential vacuum that lasted for 29 months, during which Parliament held 46 sessions to elect a president to succeed former President Michel Suleiman, whose term expired in May 2014.
In statements to Al-Ittihad, the Lebanese political analyst, Maysa Abdel-Khaleq, believes that the political vacuum that Lebanon may witness during the coming period will have serious political and economic repercussions.
Most notably, the failure of the negotiations that Lebanon is conducting to obtain international loans and aid to ease its severe economic crisis, as well as more internal tensions due to political divisions.
Maysa stressed that Lebanon’s negotiations to obtain international loans and aid fell into a “deep hibernation” due to the failure to form a government with full powers, as well as the raging conflicts between the parties and their failure to unite and agree on the higher interest of the country, stressing that without reforms, Lebanon will not obtain loans and aid. from the international community.
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