Kazakhstan, the huge former Soviet republic characterized by a cycle of stability since the independence from the USSR in 1989 – with an old-style communist leadership of Nursultan Nazarbajev, who enjoyed popular support for a quarter of a century – was the scene of violent incidents this January, as a result of demonstrations that began as peaceful protests against rising fuel prices .
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According to official data, 225 people died and 2,000 were arrested. The government of the incumbent president, Kassim Jomart Tokayev, backed as successor by Nazarbajev, has progressively achieved a return to “normality”, thanks to the requested Russian military intervention and the announcement of a large package of social reforms and adjustments of political order.
As a result of the confrontations, it has been remembered internationally that it was in 1989 when there were protests against the USSR, for carrying out nuclear tests, and that led to their suspension.
There was the young Nazarbajev, who in 1962 had entered the Communist Party of Kazakhstan (PCK), branch of the PCUS, in which he developed his political career until he became president of the Council of Ministers, in 1984, and first secretary of the PCK.
A Muslim, married with three daughters, Nazarbajev was prone to atheism during the Soviet era. Once leader of the independent nation, Nazarbajev has exhibited his Muslim heritage by pilgrimage to Meccasupporting the reconstruction of mosques and combating Islamic terrorism.
In those days, 1990, after the disintegration of the USSR, the communists won in free elections. Nazarbajev assumed the position of president for a period of four years. He later executed the familiar script: mandate extension decrees, elections with “overwhelming majorities”, decorations in bulk and elections with severe criticism from external observers. The nascent democracy was transformed into a patriarchal structure with a single person governmentin charge of a leader with great significance in the recent history of the nation.
Along with criticism for corruption, electoral manipulation, control of the media through his daughter Darigá Nazarbáyeva and restriction of freedoms, the president received multiple awards for his economic achievements and openness to foreign investment, including US oil companies. .
(Also: Russian-led troops begin withdrawal from Kazakhstan.)
New name
Major cities and the capital itself, now renamed Nur-Sultan in honor of the warlord, were rocked by thousands of angry citizens who took to the streets, torching public buildings, clashing with police, burning vehicles and toppling statues.
The second coldest capital in the world experienced very hot days. The trigger was the not at all cautious increase of 100 percent in fuel prices.
Tokayev backed down, annulling the increase in LPG and other energy sources, proposed adjustments in the cabinet and announced the implementation of measures aimed at the well-being of the people who took over the squares and parks, especially the new middle and educated classes, who launched slogans against concentration of wealth and power.
The demonstrations of discontent continued and people on the street chanted the slogan: ‘Shal Ket!’ (“Go away, old man!”), alluding to the fact that, despite Nazarbajev’s retirement in 2019, he continued to hold decisive positions and privileges, heading the almighty National Security Council and the People’s Assembly.
The citizens demanded to review the planned transition model in the Presidency. Tokajev produced dismissals, and the Lower House of Parliament approved amending the Constitution to eliminate life posts. The president, invoking the existing Collective Security Treaty, requested Russian military assistance, and Moscow immediately responded with a grand display. Normality is gradually restored.
Undoubtedly, the magnitude of the political crisis is going to produce changes inside the country.
The per capita income is 9,000 US dollars, but inequality means that many people are far from that average. The drop in energy prices during the years prior to the pandemic and the disease itself brought with them a decline in the quality of life that has exacerbated citizen discomfort and must lead to reforms.
The political scenario is complex because there is a sense of ambivalence in the institutional framework. The caudillo has left, but he lives in current politics, such is the feeling for those who venerate him and those who hate him.
Such sensitivity is what the Government must overcome with measures that satisfy citizen aspirations without causing perceptions of instability or fragility in command and in the economic climate.
(Read more: After unrest, Kazakhstan says Russian troops will leave the country.)
Looking at Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan, like its neighbors Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistanwas part of the Russian Empire from the middle of the 18th century and of the USSR after the October Revolution, until 1991 when it proclaimed its independence and defined itself as a republic with a marked presidential accent.
Russia and China have followed the recent situation in Kazakhstan with great attention, as it is a country with which they have deep economic and political ties. The Republic of Kazakhstan, the same that Nikita Khrushchev promoted as the “territory of the Soviet virgin lands”, shares a border of 7,598 kilometers with Russia, the second longest border in the world, after the one between USA and Canada. In turn, the Kazakh-Chinese border comprises 1,782 kilometers, of which. 566 are aquatic.
The political scene of Kazakhstan
it is complex because there is a sense of ambivalence in the institutional framework
Russia is Kazakhstan’s first trading partner, its bilateral trade far exceeded 20 billion dollars in 2021. China is the second partner, reaching 13.5 billion dollars the previous year.
The political dialogue with Russia is very intense, the two countries have signed a good neighbor and alliance treaty in 2013. After the indigenous Kazakhs, the Russian community is the second in the country. As for China, in 2011 a joint declaration was produced to strengthen their cooperation.
To understand both Kazakhstan’s request and the immediate Russian military mobilization, it is necessary to know that in the Kazakh territory, the ninth largest among all countries, there are strategic objects for Russia such as the Baikonur Cosmodrome, from where Russia launches its space missions. When the disintegration of the USSR occurred, Russia leased the cosmodrome for twenty years. Moscow extended the agreement for thirty more years and pays 115 million dollars, 5 percent of the budget of its space agency, for the lease of this strategic object.
Throughout history the great powers generate colonialism. They populate territories with their dominant nationalities, breaking down ethnic structures and rooting languages and communities. The USSR was no exception, as is China today. The number of Russians has been declining in Kazakhstan, but political and cultural relations are very strong. The Russian community is still 20 percent of the total population. The majority of the population understands Russian, and it is not uncommon to hear statements from leaders in that language., while stressing the importance of promoting the Kazakh language. In 2017, the government approved a plan to convert the Kazakh alphabet from Cyrillic to Latin over the next few years.
(Also: What is happening in Kazakhstan? Keys to understand the crisis).
The United States closely follows what is happening in Kazakhstan, ensuring the safety of its investments. India does the same; for example, it has invited the presidents of these Central Asian nations to the Republic Day celebration in New Delhi and will have dialogues aimed at deepening economic relations and sharing concerns about the situation in Afghanistan.
Within Colombia’s international policy strategy that our next government must materialize, it is vital to consider the Central Asian region. In this case, Kazakhstan, with the extension of Western Europe, has 40 percent of the uranium, 3 percent of the oil reserves, is a producer of coal and copper, cereals and wines. Has needs for coffee, cocoa and tropical fruits and it’s going to be a global player on climate issues and overall stability. It has to be on our agenda.
JUAN ALFREDO PINTO SAAVEDRA – FORMER AMBASSADOR AND WRITER.
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