The legal certainty It is a key factor for coexistence between the societiesthe nations and of course also the investments.
One of the most notable Negative consequences of judicial reform is the uncertainty that generates Regarding the independence and autonomy of the judiciaryand even with respect to its normal functioning.
The issue of the sovereignty without understanding that it is delimited by our laws but youalso for the agreements and treaties that the country signs. With The United States and Canada have a very broad trade agreementhe USMCAwhich includes several chapters on autonomy of the judiciaryguarantees for investors, existence of autonomous organizations.
The same thing happens with the European Union which also has a whole range of democratic commitments. Fulfilling these commitments, which have the force of constitutional norms for our country, is not a simple political decision: it is an obligation if we want these treaties to endure and become stronger.
The benefit that these have for our country is immeasurable: today’s Mexico would simply be incomprehensible without the entry into force of the FTA in 1994. Today, thanks to the continued treaty with the USMCA, we are the main commercial partner of the United States and 80 percent of our exports go to that market. And the United States, Canada, the European Union, and many other international bodies have expressed their concern about judicial reform and the loss of autonomy of the judiciary.
This is not a minor issue or one that is limited to public or diplomatic expressions. Poland was under Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union from 2017 until a few weeks ago, accused of systematic violations of fundamental democratic values, the separation of powers and the violation of judicial independence.
The far-right Law and Justice government, defeated in the last elections and replaced a few weeks ago by a liberal and centre-left coalition, has been at odds with Brussels over the profound changes it has introduced during its eight years in power, during which it has reorganised the courts at its discretion, replaced judges and magistrates with political decisions, and openly intervened in the judiciary, putting the brakes on EU laws and regulations with arguments of alleged national sovereignty. The most controversial reform, which triggered the sanctions, was the creation of the disciplinary chamber of the Supreme Court to sanction magistrates based on their verdicts.
Pushing through this reform of the judiciary meant a fine of one million euros a day for the Polish government. The new liberal government is trying to unfreeze two packages of sanctions, some 75 billion euros and another 35 billion euros, imposed by the European Union on Poland. The fines were cancelled after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the election of the new government, which has now begun to rapidly reverse the judicial reform promoted by its far-right predecessors, who, by the way, still retain control of the highest court.
The country’s economic situation is delicate and vulnerable to reforms such as the one approved yesterday. On the stock exchanges, especially in New York and particularly in Madrid, there was nervousness regarding Mexican investments due to the approval of the reform. The idea that its specialists have been handling is that we must be expectant and, as the Wall Street Journal said this week, not move forward with new investments that could be controversial. The other advice is to opt for international arbitration for disputes instead of resorting to Mexican courts.
For now, the Texas government has already begun to advertise itself as an alternative to Mexico for investors interested in nearshoring. They offer much lower taxes, a climate of greater public safety and, above all, legal certainty for new investments. They say they have the benefits of the border without its difficulties, insecurities and uncertainties. The next government must fight against this: recovering certainty will not be just a matter of words and promises.
Meanwhile, the reform continues its shameful journey through the states, with scandalous actions (the Oaxaca congress was convened in the early hours of yesterday, a couple of hours after the reform had been approved in the Senate, in order to ratify it; it did so in minutes and without even reading what they were approving), with occupations of the state legislatures’ platforms and with a work stoppage ratified by the workers of the judicial branch.
Appointments
Yesterday, President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum made new appointments to her cabinet. Some of them caught the attention, like that of Octavio Romero Oropeza as the new director of Infonavit, after the terrible management he had at Pemex, where he managed to be, and it must have been an effort, the worst director of the many bad officials that this state-owned company had. It was also surprising that Iván Escalante ended up in the Federal Consumer Protection Agency, he sounded like he was going to be much more. I liked the appointments of Mariana Boy in the environmental protection agency, of Renata Turrent in Canal Once and of Romeo Pacheco in Conade.
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