Director of the Climatology Laboratory of the University of Alicante
“This is a special summer due to the continuous heat that we are having; We will have to be very attentive every week to the evolution of the weather»
After a spring of abundant rains, the Region faces the end of a “historic” summer due to its exceptionally long periods of extreme heat. This is stated by the professor and director of the Climatology Laboratory of the University of Alicante, Jorge Olcina, one of the most authoritative voices on climate change and its consequences, a process that aggravates the water deficit in the southeast and that, in recent years, has made extreme weather events more frequent.
–What autumn can we expect this year in the Region of Murcia? Are there signs that predict a possible DANA like those experienced in previous years?
–In principle, the seasonal models are talking about a dry autumn. If these estimates are fulfilled, which are made three months ahead, until the end of October we will have precipitation below normal, but here, in the Mediterranean, any unstable situation leaves you with 200 or 300 liters in one day and breaks your statistics. There is no direct relationship between a hot summer, sea water as warm as it is now, and the cold drop. In 2003 there was a very hot summer and afterwards there were no heavy rain events. But it is true that this summer is quite special, a historic summer due to the continuous heat that we are experiencing. This forces us to be very vigilant because a DANA can be formed in 24 hours. You have to be attentive every week to the evolution of the weather.
-This year, in addition, we have suffered the consequences of hot gusts.
–Yes, it is another of the factors that has made this summer exceptional, not only because it is regularly hot, but also because of this other type of unique phenomenon that has given rise to very strong gusts, electrical storms without water that cause damage and leave fires like the ones we have seen.
–Should we get used to it?
-Since 2010 it has been seen that it is already very difficult to find a normal summer. We are having sequences of hot summers. It is true that this is being special because the heat is being very intense, but it is part of a trend that has been recorded more and more continuously in the last 12 years.
-To this is also added a process of drought. The reservoirs of the Segura basin are already at less than 40% of their capacity.
–The Valencian Community and Murcia, the Júcar and Segura basins, which are always the most affected by the lack of rain, this 2022 is not so bad in the context of the country due to the rainy spring we had. In Andalusia, Extremadura and Castilla-La Mancha they are already beginning to register quite worrying drought rates. Here, thanks to those rains in March and April, we can have reserves to guarantee supplies for the rest of the year. Of course, if the autumn were as dry as expected, we would enter a worrying situation.
The phrases
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Reservoirs:
“There are reserves for the supply for the remainder of the year, but if it doesn’t rain, we will enter a worrying situation” -
Climate change:
“Agriculture in the Region has to reflect on its future and that of certain crops” -
Adaptation:
“We have to start adapting our economy to a climate with less rain and more irregular rainfall”
-The fight against climate change seems like the eternal unfulfilled promise. Is 2022 another lost year?
There are two ways of working here. On the one hand, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, which would be to eradicate the fundamental cause, since they are the ones that are encouraging this continuous warming process. We did not manage to stop it at the international level. It is true that Europe and Spain are making very notable efforts regarding the change in the energy model. There are countries that are doing their homework and there are others that are not, but of course, as the statistics are global, at the moment, we are not getting practical results that way. The other way of working is adaptation. We know that warming is going to continue in the coming decades and we have to start working to adapt our economic activity and our cities to this process. Here too there is a lot to do and that depends specifically on us, on the autonomous communities and the city councils.
– Where do you start?
-Agriculture has to make a very important reflection on its future. There are crops whose possibility of permanence will have to be assessed. Irrigation systems must begin to adapt to less rainy weather conditions and more irregular rainfall. Cities have to start adapting, become greener, with more sources to supply humidity to the environment in summer, with more energy efficient buildings and, later, tourism also has to adapt to summer seasons that are going to be very hot . Your facilities have to take these conditions into account. We still have a lot of work to do and the sooner the administrations respond, the better.
–What kind of crops would be unsustainable in the long term?
–Perhaps, the traditional rainfed ones. We know that if these conditions of such high heat continue, they will have a bad time. In irrigation, the only thing that will have to be faced is a change in the cultivation calendars. We are seeing that the vineyards are already starting to be harvested due to the heat. But, above all, I believe that the great message for the future of the peninsular southeast is that we must become self-sufficient in terms of water. The climatic context tells us that the rains are going to be less and less, not only here but also at the head of the Tagus, and we have to start betting on other types of sources to supply agriculture.
– Talk about desalination.
–Desalination, which must be subsidized for agriculture, of course, and 100% reuse of wastewater, which requires major investments in improvements to our treatment plants, and that is the responsibility of the autonomous communities.
–The war in Ukraine drives a rebound in fossil fuels in Europe. Are we taking steps backwards in the strategy against global warming?
–It is going to put a brake on the objectives that the European Union has set for itself. By 2030 we were talking about a 60% reduction in emissions. This is going to be very difficult if this context that we are experiencing continues. I believe that the achievement of these objectives is going to be delayed for at least another five or ten years.
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