British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, rapidly falling in popularity among British public opinion and even among Conservative MPs, faces a partial election in a conservative stronghold this Thursday (16) and a defeat could precipitate a censure motion inside of your party.
After a series of scandals in recent weeks surrounding the prime minister, whose legitimacy is increasingly questioned by accusations of corruption and violation of anti-covid rules in the Christmas period last year, another 25% of the conservative caucus (99 of 361 deputies) rebelled on Tuesday against the government in a vote on new restrictions against the omicron variant.
The measures were approved thanks to the support of the Labor opposition, but this was the biggest conservative rebellion suffered by Johnson, whose resignation is supported by a majority of Britons, according to several polls.
In the current context, the election to reinstate the seat of the rural constituency of North Shropshire, in central England, has gained the character of a plebiscite over Johnson’s leadership.
This constituency with just over 80,000 voters has been faithfully voting for conservative candidates for several decades. Owen Paterson, who has occupied the seat since 1997, received in 2019 the votes of 23,000 voters.
But Paterson was forced to resign recently after he was accused of pressuring members of the Johnson administration to defend the interests of two companies for which he served as a paid consultant.
In addition, the prime minister tried to modify the parliamentary rules to protect Paterson, which provoked the irritation of many deputies and voters.
The press predicts a conservative defeat, an outcome that would threaten to precipitate the sending of letters of distrust from party members against their leader, a necessary step to trigger an internal vote aimed at removing him from command of the formation.
The conservative newspaper The Daily Telegraph reports that “some MPs have privately suggested that the loss of North Shropshire would be the last nail in the coffin of Johnson’s leadership.”
And if he loses party leadership, Johnson would also have to leave Downing Street, as his predecessor Theresa May did in 2019.
– Booster doses for popularity –
The Liberal Democrats are best placed to take the seat in North Shropshire, aided by a tactical Labor vote, with which they have formed an alliance to try to inflict defeat on the prime minister.
The situation is diametrically opposed to the month of May, when Conservatives, who were hugely popular thanks to the success of the covid-19 vaccination campaign, snatched their historic stronghold of Hartlepool, in north-east England, from the labor opposition.
Now the coronavirus is once again a major concern among Britons, who are seeing more and more canceled events just days before Christmas and have been advised to limit interactions in light of the unprecedented surge in cases.
The United Kingdom, one of the countries most affected by the pandemic in Europe, with more than 146,000 deaths so far, recorded on Wednesday a record 78,610 new infections in 24 hours.
The previous record was 68,053 cases on January 8, during the advance of the alpha variant, before the delta, which is now dominant in Europe.
To keep hospitals from collapsing, the Johnson administration has set a massive goal of offering a booster dose of covid vaccine to every adult by the end of the year.
The logistical challenge entails a million injections a day and more vaccination centers have opened – running longer hours. But there is no guarantee that, even if the goal is reached, it will be enough to restore the conservative leader’s lost popularity.
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