Istat, the climate of consumer confidence fell from 118.4 points to 117.5
There new South African variant And the increase in infections in Europe bring in consumer confidence crisis in Italy. According to Istat data, in November the figure lost almost one point: it hadn’t happened since July. It went from 118.4 in October to 117.5 this month. The index, while remaining on historically elemental levels, has suffered a severe backlash.
Among the components, Expectations on the country’s economic situation worsen, those on the economic situation of the family and opinions on future possibilities to save. With reference to the judgments, worsening of those on the family budget and on the current opportunity to purchase durable goods emerged.
There decline in the consumer confidence index it is essentially due to a worsening of expectations on the general economic situation and of those relating to the personal sphere. In details, the economic and future climate are significantly worsening: the relative indices fell, respectively, from 142.2 to 139.8 and from 125.4 to 121, while the personal climate records a more contained reduction (from 110.4 to 110). Only the current climate is growing, with the index passing from 113.7 to 115.2
Istat, improvement in confidence in the manufacturing industry, decline in market services and construction
While the composite index of the business confidence in November remained substantially stable, from 115 it goes to 115.1. The performance of the index reflects heterogeneous trends in judgments and expectations among the economic sectors investigated.
Particularly, for businesses, confidence in the manufacturing industry is expected to improve (the index increases from 115.1 to 116) and in the retail trade (105.4 to 106.8). Instead, there is a decline in market services and construction (the index falls, respectively, from 112.1 to 111.3 and from 159.2 to 157.4). As for the components of the confidence indices, in manufacturing all the variables are improving with the exception of assessments on inventories; in the retail trade all variables are marked by optimism.
In relation to market services, the opinions on orders and those on business trends are worsening, while a marked increase characterizes the expectations on orders. In construction, assessments on orders that are essentially stable are combined with expectations on employment at the company in decline.
Istat, crisis on the demographic front: towards 58 million inhabitants in 2030
Finally, the forecasts on the demographic future in Italy drawn up by Istat return a potential picture of crisis. The resident population is decreasing: from 59.6 million as of January 1, 2020 to 58 million in 2030, to 54.1 million in 2050 and 47.6 million in 2070.
Particularly, the ratio between young and old will be 1 to 3 in 2050, while the population of working age will drop from 63.8% to 53.3% of the total in 30 years. From 45.7 years in 2020, the average age would pass to 50.7 years in 2050. Within 10 years, 81% of municipalities will have suffered a decline in population, 87% in the case of municipalities in rural areas. The number of families is expected to grow but with an average number of members smaller and smaller. Fewer couples with children, more couples without: by 2040 one in four families will be made up of a couple with children, more than one in five will have no children.
Confcommercio, GDP and consumption less rosy than a few months ago
On Istat data, the Confcommercio Research Office declares: “The critical issues that are emerging on the front of the pandemic and the costs of forced consumption are beginning to produce effects on expectations. The sentiment of families shows a retreat, albeit contained, for the second consecutive month. The situation of entrepreneurs appears to be more stable, albeit with sectoral differences also linked to seasonal factors “.
“For trade and tourism, the possibility of a less dramatic Christmas than the previous one undoubtedly contributed to the recovery in November. The general economic condition is still favorably oriented, but the final part of the year, for GDP and consumption, could be a little less rosy than expected a few months ago“, concludes Confcommercio.
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