Trump is, after all, a real estate speculator. And his Treasury Secretary, Scott Besent, was a monetary speculator under George Soros’ orders and then dedicated himself to high -risk investment funds
We have already proven that Donald Trump is unpredictable. Live in your own reality television and consider that the audiences are equivalent to popular support, so the script twists as soon as its program loses pulse. The first season (from January 2017 to January 2021) ended with a brutal Cliffhanger: He proclaimed that his electoral defeat was the result of fraud and sponsored an assault on the Capitol as serious as grotesque. It cannot be said that the second season has disappointed.
We know that his experience in the reality ‘The apprentice’ (2008-2017), we know that he improvises, we know that he knows how to electrify (for better or worse) to the audience. What we do not know is what is behind, that is, the basic script or political program, if there is, and its fundamental objectives, apart from the narcissistic orgy, authoritarianism and that so vague of “making America great again.”
Let’s focus on the economy. Trump has promised to impose very high tariffs on American imports, but for now he removes them, puts them and removes them again. Meanwhile, he has enmity with almost all traditional allies in the United States. Does what makes sense?
According to several of his advisors, Trump likes the “plan of the three arrows” that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, killed in 2022. But he won. And had to resort to emergency ideas. The “three arrows”, which continue to seduce them, consisted of a monetary expansion based on a drastic reduction of interest rates, a fiscal stimulus generated by the double route of the increase in public spending and the reduction of taxes and, in third place, in the suppression of subsidies and jobs in the administration. In Japan, an economically stagnant country, it only worked at the beginning.
Yanis Varoufakis, Professor of Economy and Economic Policy and Minister of Finance of Greece for a few months of 2015 (resigned for his rejection of the “austericide” imposed by Germany), states that Trump’s plans must be taken very seriously. According to Varoufakis, Trump sincerely believes that the United States suffers an exploitation by the rest of the world.
As the dollar is the international exchange currency and the shelter that is considered safer, the other countries (especially Asians) avid any American debt emission avidad. That allows the United States to sustain its astronomical indebtedness without great difficulties, but at the same time keeps the price of the dollar with respect to the other importance of importance. And that, according to Trump, prevents US exports from being competitive. Varoufakis admits that Trump’s plans are anachronistic, because he dreams of recovering a metallurgical industry (steel, cars) typical of the twentieth century, not of the present. Let’s overlook that detail.
How does Trump expect to maintain the dollar as a refuge currency, that is, continue enjoying a cheap debt, and at the same time devalue the dollar to improve the competitiveness of the manufacturing industry? By the threat path. Trump thinks that applying unsustainable tariffs, foreign central banks (the European, the British, the Chinese, the Japanese) will be forced to negotiate already to lower the interest rates to practically zero, so that their currencies will be devalued.
In this way, according to the theory that Varoufakis attributes to Trump, the United States will have cheaper imports, so that their own consumers will notice little tariffs. The next phase of the alleged plan would be to force the other powers to sell titles in dollars and buy with the debt amount in their own currency, causing a revaluation of the competing currencies with the dollar.
All this seems confusing, complicated and unlikely. And too boring to use it in the reality presidential. But Trump is, after all, a real estate speculator. And his treasure secretary, Scott Besent, was a monetary speculator under George Soros’ orders and then dedicated himself to high -risk investment funds. It is not crazy to assume that they want to bet against the rest of the world and win, creating a new world system in which the United States would enjoy all the advantages without suffering any inconvenience.
It could also happen that the rest of the world, headed by China, was fed up with threats and established its own order, a new Bretton Woods, with a currency other than the dollar. In that case, the United States would lose its advantage and load with huge inconveniences.
The new season of reality promises to be thrilling.
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