Iowa measures its dedication to Donald Trump in a caucus at 29 degrees below zero

In religious Iowa, the bishop of Des Moines excused him from going to mass this Sunday due to the expected polar temperatures. For this Monday, day of caucus, the thermometer will show a maximum temperature of 20 degrees below zero and a minimum of 29 below zero. Emergency services have declared a wind chill alert. The ground is covered with snow and ice everywhere. The storm and its freezing temperatures will penalize participation in the caucus coldest in history. The starting signal for the Republican Party primary race will measure the degree of dedication to Donald Trump, the favorite, and will settle the fierce battle for second place between the governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, and the former ambassador to the United Nations and former governor. from South Carolina, Nikki Haley.

The latest poll published this weekend, which is reputed to be the most reliable, the Iowa Poll, carried out by the local media The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom points out that Trump has the support of 48% of Republicans inclined to go to the elections. caucus this Monday. The main novelty is that it already clearly places Nikki Haley as second, with 20% of the votes, compared to 16% for Ron DeSantis. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy would keep 8%. The small print of the poll shows Trump dominant in all demographic segments, while Nikki Haley stands out among urban voters with higher education and income.

For DeSantis, such a result would be catastrophic. This Saturday, at one of his campaign events, a citizen approached him to give him a prize for trying: “Governor, I want to give you this trophy for participation. “Probably, he is not going to win this election,” he laughed in his face before the members of the security team took him away. Iowa is a religious state, with a higher percentage of evangelical Christians, among whom its conservative positions may resonate more. He has campaigned there tirelessly, touring its 99 counties. If the most he can achieve after that is third place, his campaign is mortally wounded. “You are going to be much stronger on Monday night than in any other election you will ever be able to participate in,” DeSantis told about 60 voters on Saturday at his first event of the day in Council Bluffs, on the western edge of Iowa, according to AP.

One of the unknowns is who the likely low turnout will favor most. Before the storm and the arctic cold, attendance records were expected at the caucus, above 200,000 people. Now, the cold imposes its law. The snow especially makes movement difficult in rural areas and that could somewhat favor Haley, with more urban support. The survey of Des Moines Register, However, he points out that his voters are the least motivated and enthusiastic. DeSantis has few, but convinced, and Trump has many and determined: “You have the worst time, I suppose, in recorded history, but maybe that's a good thing, because our people are more committed than anyone,” the former president said this weekend in a video.

While his rivals continued to hit the streets, Trump canceled his in-person rallies on Saturday and held them by teleconference. “It's horrible out there,” he was seen saying when arriving at one of the events. On Sunday, however, he did give the last campaign closing rally in person. And he used it to attack Nikki Haley, whom he already seems to see as his main rival. “She is not suitable to be president. “I know her very well,” Trump said in Indianola (Iowa), noting that her way of thinking is not appropriate and that she is not “tough” enough.

For her part, Haley was campaigning on Saturday in Iowa City and criticized the former president: “Chaos follows. You know I'm right. “We cannot defeat Democratic chaos with Republican chaos.” And this Sunday he insisted on that idea of ​​change in Ames, also in Iowa. “11 months have passed, and it all comes down to tomorrow,” Haley said about the caucus on Monday, introducing herself as a “new generational leader who leaves negativity and baggage behind and focuses on the solutions of the future.”

The caucus from Iowa They are political assemblies that take place this Monday starting at 7:00 p.m. local time (2 a.m. on Tuesday in mainland Spain), in civic centers, schools, sports centers and even private homes, some 1,500 different places far and wide. of this state of 3.2 million inhabitants. In those places, Republican voters will express their preferences for the candidates. Sometimes there are speeches and debates, although not necessarily. In the Republican case, there is no formation of groups or elimination of candidates who do not reach a certain percentage of votes. Those were the characteristics of the caucus Iowa Democrats until 2020. Here, although those who attend tend to be more participatory and often like to express themselves and defend their ideas, the vote is secret and the differences with traditional primaries are reduced.

Democrats have relegated caucus of Iowa after the botched 2020 count, which was delayed for days and was never completely reliable. President Joe Biden pushed for the first votes to be cast in more diverse states that better represented his party and the country. Iowa Democrats accepted that their votes be by mail and that they will not be completed and published until March. Officially, that party's primary process begins in South Carolina on February 3, and then moves to Nevada. However, the New Hampshire Democratic Party is moving forward with a Jan. 23 primary that the party's national apparatus says will be invalid.

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