Ibovespa drops slightly in NY after US data, but defends historic level

The outlook is one of caution abroad, following the release of the US labor market data for August reported this Friday, the 6th. The Ibovespa opened at 136,508.29 points, at zero to zero, fell to a low of 135,831.88 points (-0.49%), reached a high of 136,653 points (up 0.11%) and is now on the verge of falling. The movement reflects the devaluation of most stock exchange indexes in New York.

“It is falling, but not due to a loss of fundamentals but rather due to natural market fluctuations. The Ibovespa is still in the historical range of 136 thousand points”, points out Brayan Campos, variable income trader at Manchester Investimentos.

Investors are evaluating the payroll, the official employment report from the United States. Despite fewer job creation in August compared to July in the US, there was an increase in average wages.

In this sense, it tends to reinforce bets on a 0.25 percentage point drop in interest rates in the United States from September onwards, given that labor market conditions in the country do not appear to be so unfavorable as to lead to a recession. Earlier, pricing indicated an increase in bets on a 0.50 percentage point drop in the basic interest rate in the United States this month.

“The expectation of a cut has not materialized,” says Campos, who believes that the markets were already counting on a cooling. “In a way, it is a positive payroll by reinforcing this expectation of a drop, but not necessarily of half a percentage point,” says Campos.

For Silvio Campos Neto, partner at Tendências Consultoria, the data from the American labor market show a weakening, but do not indicate that the sector is sinking. As he points out, the unemployment rate even fell a little in August and there was an increase in average wage gains. According to the economist, this scenario corroborates the idea of ​​an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed, the US central bank). However, he considers that “this set of data does not make it clear whether the Fed will start the cut by 0.50 percentage points.”

This negative behavior of international stock markets tends to hinder a positive closing of the Bovespa Index for the week, given that until yesterday’s closing it had accumulated an increase of only 0.37%. If it advances, it will be the fifth consecutive weekly gain. At around 11 am, it was down 0.02%.

Now, investors’ expectations are focused on speeches by Federal Reserve leaders this Friday, just a few days before the definition of US monetary policy, which will be on the 18th. Earlier, the president of the New York Fed, John Williams, adopted a soft tone, stating that “it is now appropriate to lower the Fed Funds rate.”

Also on the 18th, the Central Bank of Brazil will announce its decision on the Selic rate, which is currently at 10.50% per year.

In fact, despite the cooling of the General Price Index – Internal Availability (IGP-DI) in August to 0.12% compared to 0.83% in July, the figure was above the median of 0.09% of expectations. Thus, it tends to reinforce concerns about the unanchoring of expectations.

Yesterday, the Central Bank’s Director of Economic Policy, Diogo Guillen, reiterated that whatever is necessary will be done to re-anchor inflation expectations. The statement eased future interest rates and allowed the Ibovespa to rise by 0.29%, which closed at 136,502.49 points, after much volatility, but the scenario is still one of caution, both due to inflation and fiscal concerns. Today, future interest rates are rising again.

Also yesterday, at Broadcast (real-time news system of Grupo Estado), the executive secretary of the Ministry of Finance, Dario Durigan, number 2 in the department headed by Fernando Haddad, stated that the proposal to limit the growth of all public spending by the ceiling of the new fiscal framework is “under debate” and “maturing within the government”.

The situation is also worrying on the Old Continent, where German industrial production fell more than expected and the eurozone’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the second quarter grew less than analysts expected. As a result, stock markets are falling there.

At 11:09 am, the Ibovespa fell 0.37% to 136,003.81 points, compared to a decline of 0.49% to 135,831.88 points at its lowest point. At its highest point, it was 136,653.00 points. Commodity-linked stocks such as Vale (-0.17%) and Petrobras were down (PN: -0.50% and ON: -0.38%).

Likewise, shares of large banks fell by up to 1.19% (Bradesco PN). The dollar in cash continued to fall slightly by 0.02%, to R$5.5690, after reaching a low of R$5.5304.