HS Analysis | Marin’s government is no longer held up by trust but by threats

Prime minister Sanna Marini (sd) the government continues to tickle and move forward as if with a gun on the temple.

This is what the government decided on Wednesday in a five-party meeting consisting of the chairmen of the governing parties. The group has never once discussed the continuation of the government as seriously as this time.

Marin resolved the government’s deadlock by announcing that the government will not continue if the rules of the game are broken once more.

“This was the last time. If any government party continues to act in this way, it will be chosen that this government’s path will come to an end,” Marin told reporters in the parliament on Wednesday.

The threat is strong, and puts the parties in a difficult position. It unequivocally forbids, stronger than before, all departures against the rules of the governing parties.

A quintet Wednesday’s negotiations are described as serious but matter-of-fact. According to HS’s information, the meeting spoke with real words about whether the government can continue.

The board’s rules of the game were extensively discussed at the meeting.

In practice, it was about whether the center would allow the government to operate with common rules of the game. All other government parties are tired of the withdrawals from the center, which is in a crisis of support.

The center defended itself by considering that it too has the right to its opinions and that the other governing parties paint too negative a picture of the party in public.

Read more: The government will remain standing, but there can’t be another layoff from the center: “This was the last time,” said Marin

About the rules of the game the most important thing is that the ruling party defends the bill passed unanimously by the government even when the bill is finally decided on in the parliament.

Another key rule is that promises made earlier are kept.

Four other government parties consider that the center has broken both of these rules this fall.

Center together with the opposition parties, voted on Wednesday to repeal four sections of the government’s nature conservation bill, which the center itself had approved before it went to parliament.

Read more: The center voted along with the opposition in favor of easing the nature conservation law – That’s how everyone voted

According to the Center, those articles would have endangered the property protection of forest owners, although the Constitutional Law Committee did not see this danger.

The central government’s position changed a lot, the government advisor of the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry Vilppu Talvitien because of the calculation.

However, Talvitie has not been able to convincingly justify what his calculations of threatened forest areas are based on, and he also has no calculations left.

Conservation biologist Panu Halme made his own calculation this week, based on which he claimed that Talvitie’s calculation is completely wrong.

Read more: Researcher: The central government’s decision on the Nature Conservation Act was based on completely wrong figures

Green were especially angry at the center’s actions, because they had wrested a deal with the center with the monthly trade, and they were written to please the center.

According to HS’s information, at the meeting of the five on Wednesday, the chairman of the Rkp, the Minister of Justice, was unexpectedly the most nervous and hurt towards the center Anna-Maja Henrikssonwho is usually calm in meetings.

For Rkp, asset protection is at least as important as for the center, but unlike the center, Rkp stuck to the agreement, even though it was difficult for the party.

Rkp has been opposing the now cut sections since early spring, but was left alone when the center unexpectedly accepted the sections. According to the party, the center betrayed the Rkp twice, first in the spring and then in the fall.

The right-wing party Rkp is also annoyed that the center calls it a left-wing party in public.

Center has all along played down the controversy by saying that it is only a matter of a few sections in one law.

However, the processing of the Nature Conservation Act is not the only thing why other government parties are nervous in the centre.

The behavior of the center is said to have changed after HS said in October that support for the center had collapsed to the lowest level ever.

In the autumn, the government still had a couple of dozen legislative proposals left, which, in the opinion of those outside the center, should have been brought to the parliament during this term of government.

However, the center informed the unit that it does not accept the capital gains tax, which is aimed at wealthy people who are taking their assets out of Finland.

Many have criticized the quality of the bill, but it was nevertheless part of a big package that the government agreed upon in the mid-term riots in 2021. At that time, the government was close to falling, but the center remained in the government largely because of that compromise package.

The party eventually got through, among other things, a 370 million euro cut list. One part of the package was the capital gains tax pushed by the left-wing parties. In the end, the center only wanted the part it liked from the agreed package.

After this, other parties also found unpleasant laws for themselves. The government was supposed to pass another 15 of the bills, but only a few of them were implemented.

In the opinion of the other government parties, the center has also behaved inappropriately in other ways, for example by openly barking at the prime minister during negotiations.

Read more: The tax changes failed, only a few proposals move forward – HS reviews the content of the government’s thin agreement

Center has defended himself that others have also acted inappropriately.

Part of the parliamentary group of the left-wing coalition left when the parliament voted on the patient safety law.

Read more: The government came to an agreement on the Patient Safety Act: these changes were passed by the Left Alliance

The actions of the Left Alliance are also condemned in other government parties than in the center, but it is seen as a milder violation of the rules than the actions of the center.

The leadership of the Left Alliance tried, both publicly and in the party’s parliamentary group, to get the MPs opposing the patient safety law to root out, but they failed.

The other government parties have not noticed that the chairman of the centre Annika Saarikko would have tried in the same way as the chairman of the leftist union Lee Andersson to get their party’s MPs to stay in the government front.

In addition, the Patient Safety Act was approved in parliament as a whole, unlike the Nature Conservation Act.

Center also constantly brings up the Sámi Parliamentary Act, which the government brought to the parliament’s consideration even though the center opposed it.

Read more: The government presented a proposal for the Sámi Parliamentary Act – Three central ministers voted against it

According to the center, the other government parties, and especially Prime Minister Marin, broke the rule that the government may not introduce dissenting bills to the parliament.

In the opinion of the other government parties, the center’s view changed here as well.

According to all four other government parties, Saarikko accepted an exceptional way in the meeting of the five, according to which the center can vote against the Sámi law in the parliament.

In any case, the day after the decision of the five, Saarikko barked at Marin’s actions. Marin, on the other hand, stated that he was surprised by the city center’s change of heart.

The argument of the autumn has finally driven the government to a situation where its ability to function has been really in danger. The center has blamed the situation on the prime minister, who, in the center’s opinion, has not focused enough on the government’s problems.

Marin’s carrying out the resignation threat would probably mean new government negotiations, because according to the constitution, the government must be overthrown if there is a significant change in its composition.

After this, the parliamentary parties would negotiate a new majority government. A majority government would hardly be assembled from the parliamentary parties, so the country would start to be led by a rare minority government in Finland’s conditions.

The Ministry of Transport would be another option, but its opportunities to make political decisions are very limited.

All the parties want to keep the government together because of, for example, the war in Ukraine. This is also what the center wants.

On Wednesday, however, it became clear that the government will no longer be kept afloat at any cost.

The center now knows that the government will fall precisely because of the center, if it once again plans to overturn the government’s bills or their sections with the opposition. Of course, the same applies to other parties.

Center chairman Saarikko promised on Wednesday that the nature conservation law was an exceptional case and the operation will no longer continue.

A quintet in the end, the meeting did not actually clean up the differences between the governing parties or mutual trust. Action is needed for that.

Chairman of the Greens, Minister of Environment and Climate Maria Ohisalon the statement after the five-party meeting describes the moods of the other parties quite well. “Annika Saarikko has promised many things. Some of them have come true,” Ohisalo said.

Center however, it seems to have no regrets, even though the party admits that it acted exceptionally in the nature conservation law.

This was revealed by Saariko’s press conference, where he continued to downplay the importance of the center’s actions and taunted others.

“It must have been the former prime minister of Sweden Magdalena Andersson, who was characterized when he took office, that he is a decision-maker who is very tolerant of the bad atmosphere that comes with politics from time to time. It is good for each of us to grow into that,” Saarikko said.

Read more: The operations in the center will be remembered for a long time