Russia launched approximately 1,412 attacks on Syrian insurgents between March 2020 and February 2024. 825 of them correspond precisely to the two years prior to the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, while 587 are from the two years after. This means that Vladimir Putin reduced his bombing by 29% after the start of the offensive against kyiv, according to the analysis carried out by elDiario.es with information from the organization Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED).
“It cannot be said that the drop in the number of Russian bombings since February 2022 is solely and mainly due to the invasion of Ukraine,” Muaz al Abdullah, the organization’s researcher for Syria, explains to elDiario.es. “The war in Europe demanded [a Rusia] many resources and of course there was a redeployment of Russian forces from Syria to Ukraine after the invasion and we also know what happened with [los mercenarios rusos] Wagner, but we have to understand that at that time in Syria there were no active battle fronts that required a high level of resources and bombing,” he adds.
However, during that four-year period there are no major changes on the ground that could explain a sudden change in the bombing pattern. As Al Abdullah explains, in April 2020 the front lines froze, “this does not mean that the fighting is over, but rather that territorial control between the different actors does not change,” he explains.
“In March 2020, a large military operation did take place in eastern Syria that required a lot of Russian support in the form of bombings. After that date, the intervention of Russian forces fluctuated from month to month, but there were no major peaks, with the exception of September 2021 in Idlib. [que entonces era el último bastión insurgente] and October 2023,” says Al Abdullah. “Right after that intervention, a certain increase in bombing could be expected to consolidate those gains and area of control of the Al Assad regime,” he adds.
In the two years before the invasion of Ukraine, ACLED recorded a monthly average of 34 Russian attacks. In the two subsequent years, that figure was 24, the director of the organization, Clionadh Raleigh, tells elDiario.es. ACLED is dedicated to monitoring war zones and recording all incidents to create a database on global conflict.
Shortly after the invasion, a squadron of Russian Su-25 fighter-bombers was removed from Syria and sent to Russia. In August 2022, according to some reports, Russia withdrew a missile system from Syria to Crimea. The war launched against kyiv also forced the withdrawal of Wagner mercenaries from Syria to deploy them in Ukraine and, following the mercenaries’ leader’s 2023 mutiny against Putin, Russia finally forced the remaining members in Syria to leave the country or join to the ranks of the army, according to The New York Times. Putin also moved senior officials from Syria to Russia to direct the offensive in Ukraine, as was the case of Sergei Surovikin, nicknamed ‘doomsday general’.
“The Syrian regime subsisted thanks to the support of Iran, Hezbollah, which was Al Assad’s army, and Russia. Russia provided the air force; Hezbollah provided the ground force; and Iran provided economic and technological support. And all three have been weakened: Hezbollah has seen its operational capacity practically eliminated; Russia has withdrawn its aviation from Syria; and Iran has enough to defend itself from Israeli attacks,” Josep Borrell, former EU High Representative for Foreign Policy, said a few days ago in an interview with elDiario.es.
In this sense, defense analyst Michael Kofman, specialized in Russia, stated on the Bluesky social network that “Russian air power is not viable without a surrogate ground force and had no one to support. the army [de Asad] “It has completely melted.” “Russia has always sought to maintain an economy of force and after 2019 it reduced its personnel [en Siria] to 3,000-4,000. This is partly due to logistical limits. Considering their war in Ukraine, the ability or desire for a large deployment does not exist,” he added.
According to Kofman, Russia has a dozen aircraft in Syria, several transport and attack helicopters, two short-range air defense batteries, a coastal defense missile battery in Tartus and a small ground force to protect bases.
The last days
During the definitive offensive of the insurgents that collapsed the government of Bashar al Assad in just 12 days, Moscow notably increased its bombings, reaching a total of 71 attacks from November 27 when the offensive began until December 8 in the that the regime fell. However, during the entire month of October it carried out 66 bombing raids; in September, 32; August, 23; and July, 37.
However, that support was insufficient to sustain Russia’s old ally. Will and capabilities seem to have played a role, but Moscow has currently tried to tone down the tone with the insurgents with the aim of maintaining its military bases in the country.
Russia launched its military operation in Syria in September 2015 with authorization from Bashar al-Assad. The first three years were especially hard, with more than 45,000 bombings and, although he initially claimed to attack the Islamic State terrorist organization, the Russian campaign served to return control of most of the country to the then president.
#invasion #Ukraine #impacted #Russian #operation #support #Assad
