How the Ecuadorian authorities are suppressing an armed rebellion: army mobilization, forecast

On January 7, in Ecuador, the leader of the Los Choneros criminal group, Jose Adolfo Villamara, nicknamed Fito, escaped from prison. After this, riots began in several prisons across the country. The next day, President Daniel Noboa, who came to power in 2023, declared a state of emergency and a curfew. On January 9, the leader of the second largest Los Lobos gang, Fabricio Colon Pico, also escaped from another prison.

The president's decision caused an escalation in violence by criminal gangs. In particular, armed people in balaclavas seized the studio of the TC Televisión television channel in the city of Guayaquil during a live broadcast, without making clear demands. In response to the actions of the militants, Noboa declared a regime of “internal armed conflict” in the country and mobilized the army and police, ordering the neutralization of more than 20 criminal gangs.

The situation in Ecuador also caused an international reaction. In particular, Argentina's Minister of State Security Patricia Bullrich announced Buenos Aires's readiness to send its security forces to Ecuador to help suppress the riots. The Peruvian police also launched a special operation on the Ecuadorian border to suppress the activities of criminal gangs.

The President of Ecuador relied on a military solution

The current President of Ecuador, Daniel Noboa, has all the necessary resources to suppress the situation in Ecuador by force, but such a scenario will not solve the country’s fundamental problems. Senior researcher at the Institute of Latin America of the Russian Academy of Sciences Alexander Shinkarenko spoke about this in a conversation with Lenta.ru.

The expert also added that suppressing prison riots does not provide “the solution that the state needs.”

Foreign intervention in quelling prison riots is unlikely

Shinkarenko also drew attention to statements by Argentine Security Minister Patricia Bullrich. According to the expert, these statements should not be overestimated and they are only words of support.

The expert recalled that the situation in Ecuador caused the unity of political forces. In particular, even domestic political opponents, including the country's ex-president Rafael Correa, expressed words of support for Noboa.

The conflict arose due to a crisis in public safety and the penitentiary system

The political scientist added that the current conflict in Ecuador is not directed against President Noboa as a specific person, since these problems occurred under previous presidents Guillermo Lasso and Lenin Moreno.

“This is not a union against Noboa specifically, we are talking about the fact that the problem of organized crime goes beyond the usual boundaries. Not when a riot occurs in some province, but when the actions of criminal groups begin to become widespread. This is due to the crises that exist in public safety and the prison system. But they didn’t appear yesterday,” Shinkarenko noted.

Earlier, the editor-in-chief of the Latin America magazine, professor at St. Petersburg State University, Viktor Kheifets, spoke about the causes of the unrest in a conversation with Lenta.ru. He also stressed that the situation in Ecuador could have started earlier and reflects the country's long-standing problems.

“In itself, this could have happened a month earlier, three months later – there is no sacred date to which this is tied. The problem of violence in Ecuador is quite old; drug cartels did not become influential today. But now, when the newly elected president recently took office, they decided to show who is boss in Ecuador,” the expert said.