The war in Ukraine has shot to the center of the energy market with a rise in prices that is noticeable in many aspects of daily life: from daily commuting in the city to the air conditioning of houses. But behind this palpable crisis, there is another that is even more worrying and at the same time related: will there be a food shortage?
If we take into account that Russia and Ukraine supplied almost a third of the wheat and barley consumed by the world before the limitation of exports, will these staples be missing from the world’s pantries? countries alike?
The question hovers over public opinion and the truth is that the international organizations that have a say in the matter of food are analyzing the medium and long-term scenarios, in anticipation that the Russian offensive on Ukraine will continue over time.
Fifty-six days after the outbreak of the war, the focus has been on the poorest countries that imported wheat to the countries in conflict and that are forced to face, with hardly any resources, a rise in the price of this raw material. Thus, international actions are aimed at preventing the shadow of famine from extending further over the most vulnerable regions of the African continent.
A few weeks ago, the EU announced, for example, that it had increased its planned contribution to humanitarian aid for the Sahel and Lake Chad regions by €67 million, raising its contribution to these areas to €240 million in 2022. The goal , stop «the imminent nutritional crisis».
Pressure on the most vulnerable
“Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine has caused huge spikes in food prices and increased the risk of food shortages. Food insecurity inevitably increases instability and inequalities. Today we intensify our political and financial commitment to the countries of the Sahel and Lake Chad regions, where millions of people are already suffering serious hardship and who could also become victims of the war in Ukraine if we do not act quickly, “says the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice President of the European Commission, Josep Borrell.
the NGO
Action Against Hunger It also points to the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Madagascar as the most direct victims of the international geopolitical situation. “Both depend 100% on wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine,” they say from the aforementioned organization.
In addition, African economies depended on exports to Russia of products such as coffee, tobacco and fruits, which have stopped, hitting the fragile financial systems of some regions.
Thus, more than food shortages, one can speak of a lack of resources to face rising prices. “The problem of hunger in some African regions is old and has more to do with the drought and other added geopolitical circumstances,” says José María Sumpsi, a member of the high-level group of experts of the FAO Committee on World Food Security.
In Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia, approximately 13 million people woke up with severe hunger every day, according to the aforementioned NGO. Now, “given their reliance on Ukrainian and Russian imports, food prices are skyrocketing, putting access to basic nutrition even further out of reach.”
The Maghreb and the Middle East, dependent for their couscous
According to data from the aforementioned NGO, in 2020, African countries imported 4 billion dollars in agricultural products from Russia and 2.9 billion dollars from Ukraine, with the Horn of Africa as the main destination. “After assessing the market in Mogadishu, Somalia, we have found a 50% increase in the price of flour in recent weeks. To this is added that the African economies also depended on around 5 billion dollars in product exports to Russia, “they value.
The possibilities of help also suffer. Explains Isabelle Robin, regional director of operations for Central Africa at Action Against Hunger: “With rising fuel and commodity prices, we may not be able to buy and transport as much food and non-food items as expected. . We may have to reduce our attendance.”
These are the signs that the war is “exacerbating” the food crisis in these already serious regions, but Sumpsi adds that there is no imminent scenario of great famine due to food shortages as such on this continent if, as he points out, the The food base of the population is mainly corn, millet or tapioca, rather than wheat or barley.
How are world wheat reserves?
In this sense, the FAO expert values, where he does see a greater vulnerability is in the countries of the Maghreb (Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria…) and the Middle East (Turkey, Egypt, etc.), where their consumption of this cereal, for its traditional and basic couscous, is crucial. It will also be noticed in Bangladesh.
The longer the war goes on, the more pressure the designated countries will suffer. Hence, the forecasts of the aforementioned international entity are made in the short, medium and long term. Because, strictly speaking, nobody knows how long the war will last.
“Right now it cannot be said that there is a dramatic situation for the world,” Sumpsi values. World wheat reserves are almost 30%. It is not the optimum level of 35-40% that would be found under normal conditions, but “it is acceptable because with this amount the next few months can be covered, until June when the harvest arrives.” In order to get an idea of how the global ‘stock’ is, this reserve fell to 15% in the great crisis of 2008, its lowest in 30 years.
What if the war drags on?
Nobody can predict if this can happen again, but the FAO experts also value worse scenarios in which the June wheat harvests are poor (weather conditions sometimes do not help either) or the war is prolonged and Russian exports continue banned for an indefinite period.
In the medium term, and if the harvests were bad, the situation could be classified as complicated. Is there no alternative to the so-called ‘breadbasket of the world’? «The truth is that in the medium term there are countries that could cover the gap left by Ukraine and Russia. The United States and the Mercosur countries would have this potential. We know that this possibility is contemplated and movements are already being made in these countries to prepare themselves to be able to respond in the medium term to increase their productive capacity, ”says Sumpsi, also a professor and researcher at the Polytechnic University of Madrid.
In this possibility of redoubling production to export and supply the world, nitrogenous fertilizers, key to crop yields, have a lot to say. And this is where this expert sees the main problem: «Russia controls 60% of the trade in this product, whose export has not been vetoed at the moment. If we really came to a situation where Russia decided to ban the release of these fertilizers, we would have a serious problem », he concludes.
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