American historian Allan Lichtman, a university professor who became known for correctly “predicting” candidates who would win the United States presidential elections over the last four decades, indicated his guess for the November elections, in which former President Donald Trump and Joe Biden’s current vice-president, Kamala Harris, are competing.
According to Lichtman, the Democrat, who replaced the current American president in the race to lead the White House, should be elected.
The conclusion was released this Thursday (5), through an opinion video published in the American newspaper New York Times. “The Democrats will keep the White House, and Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States,” the historian said.
To the agency Reutersthe history teacher of American University in WashingtonDC, nicknamed “Nostradamus” because of his “assertive predictions,” explained that his conclusion is based on a model of 13 true-or-false questions, which he called “keys to the White House.”
The system was developed by him in the early 1980s, in partnership with Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok. In the study, they analyze the political landscape based on fundamental questions related to the candidates’ parties.
Since then, he has correctly called every presidential election except George W. Bush’s victory over Albert Al Gore in 2000, after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in Bush’s favor following weeks of legal wrangling over disputed ballots.
See the list of questions that are checked by the teacher to define your guess:
Party mandate: after the midterm elections, the party in power holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. (False)
Task: the candidate of the incumbent party is the incumbent president. (False)
Short-term economy: the economy is not in recession during the election campaign. (True)
Third Party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign. (True)
Objection: there is no significant challenge to the nomination within the incumbent party. (True)
Long-term economy: real per capita economic growth during the period is equal to or greater than the average growth during the previous two periods. (True)
Policy change: the incumbent administration makes major changes in national policy. (True)
Social unrest: there is no sustained social unrest during the term. (True)
Scandal: the incumbent administration is not involved in any major scandals. (True)
Candidate charisma: the candidate of the incumbent party is charismatic or a national hero. (False)
Challenger Charisma: the candidate of the challenging party is neither charismatic nor a national hero. (True)
The analyst, however, has yet to answer two of the fundamental keys that could change his “forecast.” Lichtman stated in the video that “foreign policy is complicated and these keys could turn the tide” for Kamala Harris. They are:
Foreign/Military Failure: the incumbent administration does not suffer from any serious failure in foreign or military affairs.
Foreign/Military Success: the incumbent administration achieves great success in foreign or military affairs.
The observations were made by the historian due to voters’ negative view of the Biden administration’s position on Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza, which, according to Lichtman, is a “humanitarian disaster with no end in sight.”
“But even if both foreign policy keys were false, that would mean there would only be five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to reclaim the White House,” the historian told New York Times.
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