In addition to drones, robots could play the main role in the next wars – in Ukraine they are being developed to a practical level and learning to be independent.
Kiev – It has something of a Lego Technics model – and a name like from Star Wars: D-21-11; and he should make Russia fear. Currently in the Ukraine war and later as a universal vehicle in the next land war. The D-21-11 is a robot in development stage presented by the Ukrainian development cluster Brave1 – an online platform for communication between developers and financiers.
D-21-11 rolls towards Vladimir Putin's army on four thick wheels and consists of only one vehicle base – the size in the first pictures is indefinable, technical data unknown; However, it should be waist height including the superstructure. He has a lot of responsibility to bear because he is supposed to be multifunctional. As a chassis for an automated turret with a heavy machine gun, as an ammunition transporter or as a reconnaissance aircraft. According to the magazine DefenseExpress The robot is said to be able to carry out tasks ranging from reconnaissance and surveillance to offensive and defensive operations: “Its modular design allows for the seamless integration of removable cargo units, thereby enabling the safe and efficient delivery of ammunition and provisions to troops even in life-threatening situations Zones.”
Killer or coolie – the role of robots in war is controversial
The D-21-11 thus renews the discussion about the use of unmanned systems with increasing freedom of action. Critics see serious problems with ethical questions if the load units are upgraded with modules to fight human beings – as long as no human operator remains in control of the fire. Nevertheless, many systems from many countries are already operational and programs for automatic target recognition and decision-making on how to engage the targets are also ready for practical use.
The automation of armies has been going on for years. Ronald Arkin is a professor at Georgia Tech University in Atlanta and researches autonomous weapon systems. What is crucial for him is the serving function that robots like this should take on Deutschlandfunk reports, “I think the military wants to send systems out with the troops, like dogs, or mules, or other things in the past that helped soldiers accomplish their mission.”
The crucial question will be what powers autonomous weapons will be given – the first drones in the Ukraine war are already beginning to select their targets independently. D-21-11 is also designed for more than driving goulash soup into the front trenches. He should be able to kill. How much freedom of choice remains to be seen. The robot was presented by the Ukrainian Minister for Digital Transformation, Mykhailo Fedorov. He sees his communications platform Brave1 as the furnace of Ukrainian innovation to equip the army with the tools to effectively defend their country while minimizing human costs.
AI in war – Putin's army is inferior to Ukraine
This is exactly what gets people inflamed, as the “Young Security Politicians” working group at the Federal Academy for Security Policy argues: The core problem of a largely autonomous system is that, as part of its software programming, it gives itself, at least to a certain extent, if-then rules , without being able to be responsible in any way. The rule set is merely the result of a calculation process, the programming of which was carried out by a human, but the concrete result of which cannot yet be foreseen at the time of programming. This would lead to a breakdown of the necessary connection of responsibility, which would mean that such a system could be classified as “questionable” even beyond conventional international humanitarian law.
The “Young Security Politicians” come to the conclusion: “Unlike the soldier, who knows the considerations of his decision-making process, can describe and justify them and thus shows responsibility for compliance with international law, the use of (partially) autonomous weapon systems creates the danger of Gap of responsibility.” On the other hand, the use of robotics and artificial intelligence is precisely eliminating the imbalance of power between Russia and Ukraine and bringing clear advantages to the defenders, as Anselm Küsters and Jörg Köpke for the Center for European Politics (cep) make it clear: the age of AI will redistribute military power. According to scientists, Russia apparently has the worse cards at the moment.
Fact or fantasy – the aircraft carrier of the future will carry drones
Since the start of the war, more than 100,000 IT specialists, ten percent of all those previously employed in the technology sector, have left Russia – over the same period, the number of Ukrainian military start-ups has increased tenfold cep writes. The think tank Foundation Science and Politics draws the conclusion that robotics is making wars possible again over long distances. Marcel Dickow claims: “It is conceivable that in a few years individual and larger military operations can be carried out robotically and autonomously, at least if they remain largely limited to air strikes. This is particularly true if the operational areas are far away from your own territory and therefore make conventional counter-strikes more difficult. American simulation games point in this direction by stationing drones on aircraft carriers that are camouflaged against radar and can be refueled in the air.”
D-21-11 is still a long way from that; and he might even be lagging behind the Russian engineers. Already in 2015 the star reports that Vladimir Putin is using combat robots on the ground in Syria. The magazine was referring to Russian military bloggers. They, in turn, had reported a small tank with a quadruple rocket launcher. In 2017 t
he star followed up with a small tracked vehicle allegedly manufactured by the Russian weapons manufacturer Kalashnikov with a machine gun turret and the alleged ability to fire autonomously. This premium product from the Russian arms company Kalashnikov will be called Soratnik: a small, robot-like battle tank that can be equipped with either a grenade launcher or a machine gun. However, there was no tangible evidence of the usability of both Russian products.
Robotics and the defense industry: Munich start-up gets involved
On the other hand, the German defense company Rheinmetall has already created facts with its Mission Master family, which are developed and built in Canada and are designed for all types of terrain. These vehicles should also support the soldiers and be able to drive autonomously, but primarily carry loads, conduct reconnaissance and, if necessary, provide fire support – the Mission Master is, after all, a man tall and can carry a ton of load. Germany also has start-ups for unmanned vehicles. In Munich, a spin-off from a university research project has now received more than one million euros in risk capital for the development of its model range, according to the magazine European security and technology reported. The management includes practitioners who also serve as officers in the Bundeswehr.
At the same time, the federal government has been involved in arming Ukraine with robotic vehicles – this year Ukraine received 14 unmanned Themis vehicles from the Estonian manufacturer Milrem Robotics. The remote-controlled vehicles were delivered in two versions – one for evacuating wounded people and one for demining. The demand and market for unmanned vehicles is growing. Analysts calculate the size of the market for military robots to be $31.90 billion in 2028 and therefore see an annual growth rate of 6.97 percent up to that point.
There must be a gold rush atmosphere for Mykhailo Fedorov and his Brave1 platform; especially due to the fact that the Ukraine war represents a test environment of unlimited possibilities for military technicians – a quick end to the war would at least slow down D-21-11's development.
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