With the grain crisis, tensions with Poland or criticism of his military strategy, diplomatic fronts are multiplying for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is striving to maintain Western support for Ukraine.
(Also: The president of Ukraine arrives in the United States to ask for more help and powerful weapons)
More than 18 months after the Russian invasion, Zelensky fears fatigue in European and American public opinion and faces incipient criticism and controversies.
(You can read: Poland announces that it will no longer supply Ukraine with weapons: these are the reasons)
For example, Zelensky warned the United States Congress on Thursday that he will lose the war against the Russian invasion if Washington cuts billions of dollars in aid to kyiv.
In Washington the atmosphere has changed since the president visited the capital on December 21, 2022 for the first time since Russian troops invaded Ukraine in February of the same year. Now the sense of urgency has faded and the Republican opposition has taken control of the Lower House.
Slowness
The Ukrainian counteroffensive, begun in June, has been held back by solid Russian defense lines and a rapid advance by kyiv’s troops seems unlikely.
“Russia will probably use this time to dig even more (trenches) and build new fortifications to prepare for spring,” said Margo Grosberg, head of Estonia’s secret services, in an interview with The Insider portal.
“It is clear, even to those who most strongly support Ukraine, that this war may last until 2024 or even 2025,” confirmed Mick Ryan, a retired Australian general.
The doubts of the Republican Party
After having defended his cause at the UN headquarters in New York, Zelensky arrived in Washington this Thursday to warn of a possible weakening of US military support for Ukraine.
The Ukrainian president fears this possibility, especially in the event of the victory of a Republican candidate in next year’s presidential elections in the United States.
According to Mick Ryan, “for a year” in Congress “several interest groups have been pressing to reduce or interrupt military aid” to Ukraine, with isolationist postulates or recalling the tensions between the United States and China.
“I have several questions for him. Can he account to us for the money we have already spent? What is his strategy for victory?” Kevin McCarthy, the head of the Republicans in the House of Representatives, acknowledged on Tuesday about his This week’s debate with Zelensky, which can be tense.
Tensions with Poland
In addition to the United States, European countries’ support for Ukraine may also weaken.
Poland, which until now was one of kyiv’s main allies, “urgently” summoned the Ukrainian ambassador in Warsaw on Wednesday.
He made that decision to protest against Zelensky’s statements at the UN, where he said that “some countries fake their solidarity and indirectly support Russia.”
However, according to Ivan Klyszcz, an analyst at the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS), “These episodes of mutual distrust will not alter the global course” of Polish and European support for Ukraine.
“kyiv considers Poland an essential partner and Warsaw wants to avoid a Ukrainian defeat,” adds this expert.
Discord over cereals
Since February 2022, due to the Russian blockade in the Black Sea, Ukraine’s neighboring countries became unavoidable transit zones for Ukrainian grains, exported to Africa and the Middle East.
But faced with the saturation of the silos and the collapse of local prices, several Eastern European countries decreed a unilateral embargo on Ukrainian grains.
The European Commission then approved temporary restrictions, but recently announced that it would not extend them, angering the Polish, Hungarian and Slovak governments, which reinstated their own embargoes.
kyiv responded to these measures by announcing on Monday a complaint to the World Trade Organization (WTO) against Poland, Hungary and Slovakia.
Negotiations with Moscow?
While these trade tensions grow, disagreements also appear about the convenience of negotiating (or not) a peace agreement with Russia.
Stian Jenssen, the chief of staff to Jens Stoltenberg (NATO Secretary General), suggested in August that Ukraine could cede part of its territory to Russia in exchange for membership in NATO.
Given the controversy over these statements, Stoltenberg assured that “it is the Ukrainians and only they who decide (…) what solution is acceptable.”
INTERNATIONAL EDITORIAL
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