Victory of the list of the outgoing board of directors and recomposition of the split in Generali’s shareholding. On the eve of the shareholders ‘meeting of the insurance group, the market is betting on the victory of the board of directors’ list, supported by Mediobanca, De Agostini and an important slice of institutional investors. But, disliking the protracted conflict that wears companies down, he also hopes the company’s major shareholders will find a compromise on governance and future growth. Tomorrow’s shareholders’ meeting should register a very high turnout, around 70%. And the higher it will be, the wider the gap between the board list, seen as the winner, and that of the challengers.
The difference in votes, according to some analysts and managers contacted by Adnkronos, could even reach 10% of the capital. Or in any case be higher than 6%, a decisive threshold, given by the sum of 4.42% borrowed from Mediobanca and 1.4% of De Agostini which will no longer be available to the two shareholders shortly after the meeting. Under 6%, the Caltagirone group, as hypothesized by the presidential candidate Claudio Costamagna, could challenge the outcome of the meeting and contest its validity in court and the supervisory authorities. If the turnout is decisive, the votes that will go to the Assogestioni list will also be important, but it should win a very small quota, without being able to elect its own director.
If the third minority list, proposed by asset management companies and funds, does not exceed the threshold of 5% of the share capital and if the board of directors is confirmed with 13 members, the winners will receive nine directors and the runners-up four places. By proposing a split piece of advice. A prospect, according to the market, to be avoided in every way. “In the end there will be a compromise”, between shareholders and on the board, says Wolfram Mrowetz, managing director of Alisei Sim. An agreement “is necessary in order not to do any further damage” and the Benetton family “can act as peacemaker to find a recomposition”.
According to Mrowetz at tomorrow’s meeting “there is no doubt that Mediobanca will win, also because Philippe Donnet’s management was good. But Caltagirone has garnered an important consensus and this share of shareholders cannot be ignored”. For the CEO of Alisei Sim, the problem is that Generali “over the years has not adapted to what its competitors have done in terms of dynamism and international presence. It has fallen behind”. And the ‘taking’ of Mediobanca is “a problem, because it does not have the means to support a more dynamic Generali, perhaps with a capital increase”. Indeed, it is Generali who “supports Mediobanca’s activities and remains a prisoner of them”.
Societe Generale analysts, who set the stock’s target price at 20 euros, in a recent report speak of “a tough battle between shareholders” for control of the company, with both sides meeting with investors to seek support for their respective plans. The list of the outgoing board “seems to have obtained the support of various institutional investors”, while the challengers have consolidated their position in the capital and “could obtain the support of other Italian investors”. Regardless of the outcome of the meeting, they conclude, the Generali stock “could remain under pressure in the short term due to technical factors”.
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