Just look at the world map: one of the nations that most attract attention due to its continental size and its 11 time zones is the Russian Federation. The country considered an imperfect democracy has at least ten centuries of history. One of the explanations for what is now Russia begins with the Slavs of central Europe, who left for the east in the 9th century. Another version of the story involves the Vikings, who left what is now Sweden and colonized eastern Europe. In both cases, Russia began not with Moscow, but with Kiev. You Kievan Rus founded their principality in the present capital of Ukraine. Maybe that’s where the immense Russian interest in the region comes from… would it be nostalgia?
It doesn’t seem to be the case. With more than 17 million square kilometers, borders with 14 countries and bordered to the north by the Arctic Ocean, Russia is what many geopoliticians call an “unassailable natural fortress”. The geographic position and the strategic need to remain unassailable help us understand part of Russian foreign policy. President Vladimir Putin, whom many call the “tsar of the 21st century”, is one of the few who support Belarus dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko. From Minsk, capital of Belarus, to Moscow, there are 717 kilometers that can be covered in about nine hours by land, thanks to the flat terrain of the region.
Perhaps it is also geography and geopolitics – and not nostalgia for the Principality of Kiev – that explain the Russian interest in Ukraine. Only 860 kilometers separate Moscow from the Ukrainian capital. In 2013, dissatisfied with the rapprochement with the Russians, Ukrainians took to the streets in what became known as Euromaidan. After 93 days of protests, President Viktor Yanukovych, who had been moving ever closer to Moscow and leaving deals with the European Union on hold, was deposed.
In 2014, the Russians took over Ukraine’s Crimea region. This move was seen as a reaction to the ouster of President Yanukovych the previous year. Putin sponsored a referendum in which the people of the region would decide to remain part of Ukraine or to join the Russian Federation. Since most of Crimea’s inhabitants are of Russian origin, the result of the referendum came as no surprise to anyone. There is, in this annexation, another geographical reason: Crimea, bathed by the Black Sea, offers maritime access to a piece of Russian territory and is less than 2 thousand kilometers from Moscow.
Recently, tensions between Russia and Ukraine have gained a new – and even more dramatic – chapter. With the possibility of Ukraine joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), an intergovernmental military agreement for mutual defense, the Russians began to move troops very close to the border with Ukraine.
The fear of the Russians is that NATO will come to the aid of Ukraine – especially to recover the Crimea region. More than 100,000 Russian troops, tanks, tanks and modern artillery have carried out military exercises near the border. Joe Biden, President of the United States, warned Russia about these moves back in December 2021. For Biden, any Russian action in Ukraine would entail the breaking of ties between the US and Russia, as well as other “serious consequences”.
For Biden, any Russian action in Ukraine would mean breaking ties between the US and Russia, as well as other “serious consequences”.
Last week, the US and Russia met in Geneva to address escalating tensions in eastern Europe. While the Russians reiterate that Ukraine should not join NATO, the Americans insist on the withdrawal of Russian troops from the border region, that is, the countries simply did not reach an agreement after eight hours of meeting. Accommodating such antagonistic positions is really a big challenge. Whichever side – be it the US or Russia – that gives in could set a future precedent in which international pressure will be enough to change its policies. While the Russians have repeatedly said they have no intention of invading Ukraine, few believe in Moscow’s pacifism.
It is important to note that Russian foreign policy has always been quite controversial. Alexander Sergunin, a professor at St. Petersburg University, comments in his works that post-Soviet Russia has been seen as unpredictable and aggressive. The offensive in Georgia in 2008, the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and Russian support for the Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad – who continues to decimate its population – show an international agenda very specific to Moscow. So far, international pressure has not worked to dissuade Putin. If tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue, new economic sanctions could be applied to the Russians – to say the least.
Once in NATO, at least 30 nations could respond militarily to a distress call from Ukraine. It is unreasonable to assume that a country that supports dictators like Assad would gladly accept foreign troops in a country with which it shares 1,500 kilometers of borders. Invasions of Russian territory in recent centuries have largely come from the west. Is Putin looking to retake the Principality of Kiev to become definitively the Czar of the 21st century?
João Alfredo Lopes Nyegray, PhD student in Strategy and professor of Geopolitics and International Business, he is coordinator of the Foreign Trade course at Universidade Positivo (UP).
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