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Long credited with 10% in the polls, Éric Zemmour finished fourth in the first round of the French presidential election on Sunday night, with 7% of the vote. A huge disappointment for the far-right candidate who dreamed of beating Marine Le Pen. A retrospective look at this electoral setback.
The “hidden vote” did not exist after all. Long accredited with 10% of the voting intentions in the polls and presented for a time as the possible third man, Eric Zemmour finally came in fourth place in the first round of the French presidential elections with 7% of the votes. . Far behind Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who came third. And very far from Emmanuel Macron, whom he once dreamed of facing in the second round.
Political comet, random one-choice UFO? Éric Zemmour responds to his detractors that he is not done with politics. “I will not stop there. The flags raised at the Trocadero will not be lowered,” he hammered out on April 10, after the results. We are the only ones who defend our civilization and our identity (…). There is something bigger than us, France.”
However, the disappointment is there. The “great replacement” champion has been replaced by his voters in favor of his opponent Marine Le Pen. The height of humiliation: the man who once mocked the “fifty-plus housewife” who was good only for “petting her cats” has been reduced to asking her voters to vote.
The instrumentalization of the “hidden vote”
How can we explain such a drop? In the first place, there was no such thing as the famous “hidden vote” that the candidate had. The former editorialist assured that the pollsters underestimated the intention to vote in his favor due to the unprecedented nature of his candidacy. And also because of the reluctance of voters to admit to pollsters that they would vote for him. “It turns out that Éric Zemmour has been correctly valued by the pollsters. Talking about a possible hidden vote is instrumentalization to show that there will be an electoral tidal wave to artificially maintain a dynamic,” explains Olivier Rouquan, a political scientist, to France 24.
At the height of his campaign, the apostle of national identity was accredited with between 13% and 14% of intention to vote in the polls, but his sovereignist ritornello was swept away by the arrival of the war in Ukraine and the question of purchasing power in the news. His voting intention did nothing but go down.
“When he started to drop in the polls, the far-right voters who supported him for a while could see that Marine Le Pen’s candidacy was stronger and went back to her, securing a useful vote for the far-right because they are voters who want win”, continues the political science professor and associate researcher at Cersa (Center for Studies and Research in Administrative and Political Sciences).
Many political mistakes and a negative image
He also made mistakes with serious consequences. Lack of clarity about the Ukrainian file, historical falsehoods, especially about the role of Vichy during World War II, controversy launched on the anniversary of the November 2015 attacks, the middle finger at an opponent during a trip to Marseille, a gun pointed at journalists during the Milipol show…
Political – and communication – errors have marked his campaign, and the candidate has not been able to calm the rhetoric about them. And what is worse, “he has a very bad image of a man who is too radical, it is worrying for public opinion”, according to Olivier Rouquan. And he also does not have the stature of a statesman. Lastly, he is unable to amplify his ideas to increase his constituency.
Grâce à vous, rien ne sera plus jamais comme avant. Gardez foi. Your vote is a vote for the future, a vote for espoir: car les vérités que nous avons dites à la France s’imposeront à tous dans les années qui venennent.#MerciZemmourpic.twitter.com/3QjJAji0VI
— Eric Zemmour (@ZemmourEric) April 10, 2022
The former polemicist, who greeted these voters who cast “a pioneering vote, a vote for the future, a vote of hope,” still wants to believe that his Reconquista! it’s possible. With his sights set on the “third round”, with the legislative elections in the spotlight, the former polemicist maintains his faith.
On social media, party officials are calling on legislative candidates to join their ranks. It remains to be seen “whether its 100,000 members are militants invested in the field or ephemeral supporters”, asks Olivier Rouquan. Now it is up to the party to demonstrate its ability to find credible candidates and create a strong network established at the local level. “This is not the easiest thing to do. Marine Le Pen has been working on it with difficulty for years.”
*Article adapted from its original in French
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