The challenge of a left-wing coalition stands out in front of Macron, who is excited about his victory in the last major elections, as well as his obtaining the majority of the votes of the French abroad in the first stage, while the vote is threatened by a large abstention among the French.
The French must renew all seats in the National Assembly, i.e. 577 deputies, in this two-round election, on Sunday and June 19. To form a majority government, the winning party needs to secure 289 seats.
As in 2017, French voters living abroad largely voted for French President Emmanuel Macron’s current candidates, with Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s left-wing coalition candidates, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, placed directly in second place.
Macron hopes to renew his absolute majority that would leave him free to start a series of reforms during his second term of five years, as his centrist coalition had a majority of 350 seats in parliament, as he faces numerous hurdles, including an unprecedented coalition of left-wing parties led by Mélenchon.
Left Alliance Obstacle
Commenting on this, the academic and political analyst, Arthur Lydekberg, says that the results of the elections abroad show that the main challenge will come from the NUPES coalition, a coalition of the Socialists, the Greens, the Communists and the far left, whose leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon came in the center Third in the first round of the presidential election.
Lydekberg told “Sky News Arabia” that “opinion polls also show that the coalition will get up to 27% of the vote. It is unlikely that this strong performance will translate into a majority in parliament, support for the extreme left is concentrated in some electoral districts, and with These indicators make it the largest opposition force, ahead of the far-right National Rally party led by Marine Le Pen (21%).
Regarding the new government, Lydekebreck explains, “Melenchon sought to capitalize on the widespread frustration with Macron, asking French voters to elect him as prime minister in what he called the third round of the presidential election, and although the scenario is highly unlikely, his plan would be to force Macron calls for “coexistence” government, a form in which the president and prime minister are from different parties. With or without the position of prime minister, Melenchon will not shy away from fomenting street protests and finding ways to derail Macron’s political agenda.
Macron’s electoral movement
After the opposition accused him of inaction since his re-election on April 24, Macron made two visits Tuesday and Thursday and an interview with the local press, calling on the French to choose a “stable and serious majority”.
Macron said that after the legislative elections on June 12 and 19, he wants to gather the country’s political, economic, social and union forces and citizens chosen by lottery, to discuss the launch of reforms related to purchasing power, the environment, public institutions and pensions.
He called on the French to give him a “clear majority” in the National Assembly, hinting at the danger of militancy on the part of the radical left and the far right that would constitute “unrest” for France.
Polls
Opinion polls, whose results were published recently, indicated a decline in support for Macron’s coalition, and showed that he would indeed lead the results of the legislative elections, but without guaranteeing the retention of an absolute majority in the next National Assembly, which includes 289 seats.
An Ifop investigation showed that Macron’s coalition will get 275 to 310 seats, compared to 170 to 205 for the new coalition led by Melenchon in front of the right-wing opposition (Republicans) and Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party, and the presidential majority camp confirmed, that it is dealing “seriously” with The Rise of the Left Coalition.
However, a poll conducted by the BVA Institute and its results were published on Friday, showed that only 38% of the French said that they regularly followed the election campaign, and this atmosphere raises fears of recording a high abstention. The first cycle is likely to set a new record for the county with a ratio of between 52% and 56% (compared to 51.3% in 2017), according to Ipsos Sopra Styria.
In recent opinion polls, the French expressed their concern about the slowdown in the economic wheel and the rise in the prices of food commodities and energy resources due to the Russian military operation in Ukraine.
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