Political scientist Allan Lichtman is almost always right with his predictions. Now he is presenting his results for the 2024 US election.
Washington, DC – Allan Lichtman, a 77-year-old political scientist and historian from Washington, DC, has been something of a superstar in the world of election forecasting for four decades. He has predicted the results of U.S. elections since 1984, and with impressive accuracy. He has correctly predicted both Donald Trump’s triumph over Hillary Clinton and his defeat by Joe Biden. Only once, in 2000, was he wrong with his prediction for Al Gore.
The excitement was therefore high when Lichtman announced his prediction for the 2024 US election. “Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States of America,” Lichtman announced in a New York Times video. “At least that is my prediction for this race.”
Allan Lichtman does not rely on polls for election forecast
Lichtman does not rely on opinion polls for his election forecasts. While pollsters are undecided about who will ultimately win when looking at the Harris-Trump duel, Lichtman takes a different approach. Instead of relying on poll results that predict an almost unpredictable neck-and-neck race, the historian relies on a completely different model. Polls or opinion research play no role in his forecast.
Together with statistician Jack Moshman, Lichtman has developed a unique forecasting system. Their model is based on 13 aspects that predict the outcome of the US election. Lichtman calls these aspects “keys” and explained their importance in his book “Keys to the White House”. The scientist is absolutely convinced of their accuracy. “The keys will definitely work. They are the constant north star of political forecasting,” emphasizes Lichtman.
Lichtman’s forecast model for the US election
The 13 aspects of the Lichtman prediction are:
- The party that has the president in the White House has gained seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the midterm elections.
- The incumbent president is running for the White House again.
- The party that puts the president in the White House has managed to avoid a primary election.
- An independent candidate will run alongside the candidates of the Democrats and republican to.
- The short-term economic development is positive.
- Long-term economic growth has been just as strong in the previous two terms.
- The White House has implemented important changes in national policy.
- There is no social unrest.
- There are no scandals in the White House.
- The candidate of the party that puts the president in the White House has charisma.
- The challenger is uncharismatic.
- The White House had foreign policy successes.
- The White House has had foreign policy failures.
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Donald Trump or Kamala Harris? Lichtmann explains the forecast step by step
The number of theses rated as true and false is crucial. Every correct thesis is a point for Kamala Harris, every false thesis is a point for Donald Trump.
Lichtman explains the model step by step to the New York Times and comes to the following conclusion:
- The Democrats performed better than expected in the midterm elections two years ago, but they lost seats. 1-0 for Donald Trump.
- Joe Biden is not running again. While the Democrats’ chances are generally considered to be better since Kamala Harris’ candidacy, this fact means the opposite in Lichtman’s model: 2:0 for Donald Trump.
- “The Democrats have finally gotten smart and united behind one candidate,” said Lichtman. Point for Harris and now only 2:1 for Donald Trump.
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. withdrew his candidacy. Even though he now supports Donald Trump, the point goes to Harris: 2:2 draw.
- Inflation in the US appears to be falling, and there is no longer any talk of a recession. 3:2 for Harris.
- According to Lichtman, the long-term economic development under Biden is also satisfactory and better than that under his predecessor Donald Trump. 4:2 for Harris.
- Lichtman also considers this point to be proven. 5:2 for Harris.
- Although there have been “sporadic protests” in the Biden administration, one cannot speak of social unrest. 6:2 for Harris.
- Lichtman calls it his “favorite key.” Although Republicans have passionately tried to accuse Biden of scandals, they have failed miserably. 7:2 for Harris.
- For this thesis to be true, Kamala Harris would have to be an “inspiring personality for an entire generation,” says Lichtman. He does not see this as being the case. 7:3 for Harris.
- Lichtman said that some of his supporters “think Donald Trump is a god.” But that only applies to his base. The rest of the country has a completely different opinion. 8:3 for Harris and thus the victory for the Democrat.
- Even if the two aspects of foreign policy were to speak in favour of electing Donald Trump, Kamala Harris would 8:5 win.
Lichtman is certain: Kamala Harris will become president. Regardless of what the polls for the US election show. But a model alone is not enough to win an election. The historian knows that too. That is why he concludes his explanations with an appeal to his fellow citizens: “Pull yourselves together and go vote!” (dil)
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