Vladimir Putin’s visit to Belarus is the first in 3 years, so will Minsk begin to activate its role and enter the war directly?
recent moves
The borders of Belarus have witnessed remarkable activity and an influx of Russian weapons and teams during the past days, a mobilization that “came after the West’s movements and mobilization in Poland, which is Ukraine’s real lung in the arrival of Western weapons to the heart of Kyiv,” according to the Russian researcher in the history of international relations, Solonov Plavrev.
In his interview with “Sky News Arabia”, Balavrev saw that:
- “The presence of 25,000 American soldiers in Poland, and the concentration of a third of the ground forces on the borders of Belarus and the Kaliningrad region, an escalation was carried out in the southern parts where the Belarusian border with Ukraine is.”
- “Kyiv keeps 15,000 soldiers there, in addition to other military formations, bringing this number to about 25,000.”
- “Days after the launch of the Russian military operation, Moscow realized the importance of the eastern front of Kiev. By looking at the battle map, we find that any Russian attack launched from southeastern Belarus and targeting Lviv is the biggest strategic threat to the Ukrainian armed forces.”
Importance of Poland for Ukraine
- Almost all weapons, ammunition and spare parts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine enter the country from Poland, via several land routes to Kyiv.
- If Russia cut off these routes by launching an offensive along the Polish-Ukrainian border all the way to Lviv, it could cut off most shipments of war material from the West.
Eastern front
Russia is working at a rapid pace to strengthen the Belarusian front, through a military treaty that was signed, and as a result, air defense forces and systems were deployed. And here Plavrev explained the number of Russian troops:
- About 9 thousand soldiers
- 170 tanks
- 200 armored fighting vehicles
- About 100 cannons and mortars of more than 100 mm caliber
- Deployment of an air defense system in Belarus and Kaliningrad, covering almost all of Poland and eastern Ukraine
And on Saturday, the Ukrainian authorities announced a state of air alert throughout the country, warning of a new wave of Russian attacks, while battles raged in the vicinity of the city of Bakhmut, which is besieged by the separatists.
The Ukrainian warning of a new wave of Russian attacks comes after the missile strikes that targeted several Ukrainian cities and regions, and were described as the “widest and most violent” since the start of the military operation.
Ukraine confirmed that the Russian forces targeted its territory with about 163 missiles during the past hours, and that its air defenses shot down many of them.
Dramatic change
“The incursion has already taken place, and what is happening is only a dramatic shift.” This is how the Polish politician and media figure, Kamil Gil Katie, described the Russian moves with neighboring Belarus.
“Since the beginning of the Russian moves, it used the lands of neighboring Belarus to launch and incursions into Ukraine, from which it launched missiles and launched many air raids on targets in various central and western regions of the country,” according to the Polish journalist.
And he added, “The Russian president is in full control of Minsk’s decision, so the Ukrainian General Staff does not rule out that Belarus will send subversive reconnaissance groups.”
And he considered, “For this reason, the Ukrainian General Staff calls for strengthening security measures and tightening inspections again at the entrances and exits of cities and other residential communities.”
It is reported that the Russians can use 3 brigades of the Special Operations Forces in Belarus, because they are ready and constantly training alongside the newly dispatched forces.
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