Four years have passed since the last time Max Verstappen and Red Bull competed in six Grands Prix without at least one victory. After the success on the Catalunya circuit last June 23, no one could have imagined that the championship leader (winner of seven of the first ten races of the season) would remain far from the top step of the podium in the following six events. Montreal, Silverstone, Hungaroring, Spa, Zandvoort and Monza saw the return to the top of the table of Mercedes (three victories), the confirmation of McLaren with two victories and the triumph of Ferrari in Monza.
Lando Norris, McLaren F1 Team, Oscar Piastri, McLaren F1 Team, celebrate with the team the podiums of Monza
Photo by: Sam Bagnall / Motorsport Images
This streak of results has drastically reshaped the Constructors’ standings. Of the 93 points advantage that Red Bull had over McLaren the day after the Spanish Grand Prix, 8 remain, while in the Drivers’ standings the gap between Verstappen and Norris has dropped to just 7 points, thanks to the many harakiri of the Lando-McLaren tandem.
We are certainly not discovering today (and even less so Red Bull) that McLaren has changed pace, this has been a clear and established point for some time. But assuming that Verstappen and Red Bull will have to chase the two ‘papaya’ single-seaters to the checkered flag at Yas Marina, the game is played on the extent of the stage defeats.
In terms of the world drivers’ championship, the verdict of Zandvoort (with Norris winning and Verstappen second) was not a red alert for Max, but what emerged in Monza was another matter, where Red Bull confirmed its fourth position. In the Italian round, despite the questionable strategy of McLaren that did not allow Norris to go beyond third place, Verstappen left 8 points on the field in comparison with his direct rival. There could have been 18, and Red Bull knows this very well, to the point that in the post-race debriefing the alarm sounded.
Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB20
Photo by: Simon Galloway / Motorsport Images
It will be up to the Baku weekend to tell whether the Italian Grand Prix weekend was the (negative) exception, or whether Red Bull must prepare for a season finale marked by suffering. Today it seems unlikely that McLaren will be able to stop their run in the constructors’ standings, but after the performances in Monza, fears have emerged regarding Max’s fourth world championship, a title that was already a given at the beginning of the summer.
On the euphoric wave of the Monza weekend, some have christened a Red Bull destined to make way for Ferrari in the Constructors’ standings, but the Scuderia’s situation is very similar, albeit in opposite terms. In the case of the ‘reds’, Baku will have to say whether the Monza exploit was linked to the specific characteristics of the track or whether the step forward will be considered permanent.
Formula 1 is moving so fast that it has turned the tables. Red Bull now appears to be a team caught off guard and without a clear direction, a malaise that has grown progressively over the course of a summer in which the only fixed point has been Verstappen. The nine days that separate Saturday in Baku from Sunday evening in Singapore will say a lot about the situation and the objectives that Red Bull can aspire to in the last six races of the season.
Max Verstappen talks to Helmut Marko and Christian Horner: Red Bull can’t win anymore
Photo by: Erik Junius
It is incredible to think that the subject of these evaluations is the team that has branded the first part of the championship, but the trend is there for all to see, starting with those of Christian Horner and Helmut Marko. They were the ones, the day after the Italian Grand Prix, who spoke of “world championships at risk”. It had never happened before.
Very few people believe in the Constructors’ title, even in Milton Keynes there are those who have decided not to take into account the end-of-year bonus (linked to the team title) but Verstappen’s world championship, which seemed already sealed in the safe, is still within reach.
It is not essential to find the form of the beginning of the year, but it is essential not to confirm the standards of Monza, a weekend in which Red Bull was unable to keep up with McLaren, Ferrari and even Mercedes. The answer, not definitive but potentially very strong, will come from the Asian tour of the next two weeks.
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