F1 | Ferrari: silence on Sainz, why isn't the renewal coming?

“I don't like starting a season without knowing what awaits me in the long term. I have already had experiences in this sense with Red Bull and Renault, it is not ideal for a professional driver not to know his future. This will be my priority in the winter break, if it's not possible I'll have to look around.” It was last July, Carlos Sainz in an interview granted to Motorsport.com had expressed himself very clearly regarding his plans on the eve of the tenth season in Formula 1.

There are less than five weeks left until the weekend that will kick off the 2024 World Cup, so there is the possibility that the deadline hoped for by Sainz will be respected, but in the best case scenario it will come to an end.

As was natural, the official nature of Leclerc's renewal made the missing part evident, namely the extension of Carlos. Without prejudice to the fact that team announcements are very rarely joint and that negotiations always continue on separate tracks, the most obvious aspect remains, namely the approaching deadline set by Carlos. That's the point.

Technically, Sainz's renewal appears among the most obvious. His performance over the three seasons spent in Maranello was excellent and the combination with Leclerc created one of the most complete tandems in the paddock. Charles has great talent that allows him to stand out in qualifying and in melee, Carlos is a professional with great know-how and technical sensitivity, qualities that are very useful to engineers. However, we are talking about minimum margins, in both cases there are no gaps, but rather stronger aptitudes.

The fact remains that the negotiations between Ferrari and Sainz's representatives took longer than expected. On both fronts the silence is total (practice in these cases), leaving those observing from the outside only margins to hypothesize scenarios. On 21 April 2022, Carlos' renewal for the 2023 and 2024 seasons was announced, an announcement that came at a particular time for the Scuderia, with Leclerc coming from two victories to a second place in the first three races of the season. Sainz's tally at that time was two podium finishes, namely second place in Bahrain and third place in Jeddah.

Two years later, it is very likely that Carlos has made some more demands, not only on the financial front, but also on that of guarantees, starting with the duration of the contract. The scenario is different compared to 2022 and this will have affected the initial phases of the negotiation from the 'pilot' front.

It is no coincidence that Ferrari avoided communicating the duration of the agreement with Leclerc, a sensitive piece of data for understanding the Scuderia's long-term strategy. If, as is hypothesized, the agreement is for three seasons (with an option for the next two) it is yet another confirmation that Maranello sees Leclerc as a fundamental asset for the future.

Photo by: Erik Junius

Frederic Vasseur laughs at Carlos Sainz, but the Spaniard's renewal is becoming more difficult than expected

In this scenario it is not easy for Sainz to fit into his role. We don't talk about first and second driving (always a hot topic, especially in Italy) but rather about priorities. For Mercedes, Hamilton has always been a priority over Rosberg (commercial aspects, popularity, palmares, appreciation from partners), but this aspect did not lead to differences in treatment on the track, nor did Nico's conquest of the world title.

Today, victory is tremendously important for those at the helm of a team, as confirmed by the recent Singapore Grand Prix where the entire Ferrari rallied around Sainz. Team principals have become like coaches in football, if the results are not in line with expectations they become the figure most at risk.

Ferrari knows that Sainz represents the best possible choice for the 2025/26 two-year period, and Carlos knows equally well that remaining two more years in Maranello is the best option for his career. It's about making compromises, probably some more recognition from the Scuderia and accepting a less prolonged renewal of the teammate from Carlos.

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Alex Albon is seen as the only alternative to Sainz for 2025

On the other hand, the alternatives are not sure steps forward, and this applies on both fronts. For Ferrari in 2025 the only real opportunity is represented by Alexander Albon, for Sainz the move to Audi or Aston Martin, in both cases these are choices which, at least on paper, do not seem to guarantee a step forward.