Max Verstappen takes pole position, but Red Bull’s race pace remains an unknown ahead of Sunday. Friday in Sao Paulo offers an action-packed day on the track, starting with free practice which sees big differences between the teams’ work programmes. The qualification is instead influenced by the constant changing of conditions, in an unpredictable scenario with precarious adhesion in which, as often happens, the sensitivity of the three-time world champion emerges.
Dry track, wet grip
A decidedly special qualifying session took place in Brazil, especially with regards to the decisive Q3 session. The track almost seems to sense the imminent arrival of rain, with gloomy clouds threatening the racetrack and the drivers faced with particularly treacherous driving conditions. “A strange sensation, it was as if it were raining, but it wasn’t yet”, Charles Leclerc’s commentary. Even before the rain, in fact, the track is swept by violent gusts of wind, to which modern Formula 1 cars are now extremely sensitive, resulting in a worsening of times. Once again, when it comes to immediately finding the limit of grip in conditions of poor grip, Max Verstappen always manages to show off, winning yet another pole position.
Up to that point the Q1 and Q2 sessions had been characterized by balance, with Red Bull, Ferrari, Mercedes, McLaren and Aston Martin within just over three tenths, thanks to the third shortest track on the calendar. The track evolves rapidly during qualifying, both in terms of tires and asphalt temperature, going from 40°C in Q1 to 36°C at the end of Q2. A significant change, which alters the balance of the cars and rewards those who are best able to adapt and follow the evolution of the track between driving style, incidence of the front wing and adjustments of the differential.
The first session thus sees Charles Leclerc in great shape with his SF-23, while Verstappen and the Red Bull are even forced to do three flying laps. In general, Ferrari confirmed its speed on the straights of the first and third sectors, defending itself discreetly in the central sector. However, as temperatures drop and grip increases, the hierarchies begin to change, with Leclerc stating that “it is like the car is moving away from us”, a dynamic potentially indicative of a car tending to understeer. At the same time, as the track evolves, the Red Bull-Verstappen pairing regains its luster, like McLaren. The arrival of the storm in Q3 potentially deprives the public of an exciting fight for pole position.
Hidden Red Bull on test
The only free practice session also takes place on the same day, used by the teams to mainly simulate the race pace. The approach is opposite to that seen in Austin, where almost no one had tested the pace with a full tank of fuel, betraying a certain concern on the part of the teams towards tire degradation on the Brazilian track. In Sao Paulo though Red Bull follows a different work program by their rivals, preventing us from comparing the pace of Ferrari, Mercedes and McLaren with that of the RB19, which remains hidden for the moment.
In practice both Verstappen and Perez use only the hard compound, without testing the average of which they will be able to enjoy an extra set of new tires in the next few days. The two cars carry out a particularly slow race simulation, paying around 7 tenths per lap in the first laps in comparison with Mercedes and Ferrari, potentially indicative of 20 kg more fuel on board. Red Bull’s choice is surprising, considering how hard tires are unlikely to be used in the first stint of Sunday’s race.
Overall, the risk that Red Bull may have struggled to find the ideal set-up again seems to have been averted, as happened in the 2022 edition. The impression does not derive only from the pole at the end of the day, but from Verstappen’s radio teams, who, when asked what the main limit of the car is, does not refer to anything other than the wind. It’s not missing some complaints about excessive bounces of his RB19, not of an aerodynamic nature, but rather due to a particularly low car impacting the ground. In general however, the first day of action in Sao Paulo seems to confirm that in Brazil too the man to beat is Max Verstappen.
The pursuers
Mercedes’ work program during free practice was decidedly rich simulates race pace with both hard and medium tires, collecting valuable data on the degradation of both compounds. However, Lewis Hamilton’s simulation with the hard tires is not brilliant, characterized by variable times and increasing in the final. On the other hand, the pace expressed by Russell on the averages is more constant, in what does not appear to be a simulation of the Sprint.
Also Ferrari focuses on preparing for the race, however studying exclusively the hardest compounds, without collecting data on the average for the moment. It’s impossible to know the fuel loads in detail, but Leclerc starts from times similar to those of Hamilton, lapping more consistently than the Englishman and managing to stay under 1’16” for the entire duration of the stint. Atypical work program at home instead McLarenwhich carries out very short simulations, however testing all three compounds available.
Free practice thus sees only Ferrari and Mercedes carrying out comparable simulations, while Red Bull and McLaren complete different work programmes. It is therefore difficult for the moment to predict what the balance of power will be in the race, with Saturday’s Sprint providing the first answers. The weather forecast announces a drop in temperatures for the next few days, mitigating the thermal degradation of the tyres. All this increases the possibility that the Sprint will be able to take place mainly on the soft compound, as already happened in 2022.
The strange case of Aston Martin
In Brazil Aston Martin returns to appear in the noble areas of the grid, with Stroll and Alonso able to exploit the opportunity offered to them by the wall to be among the first to take to the track in the eventful Q3. The San Paolo track, full of medium-low speed corners, highlights the strengths of the AMR23, as had already happened in Zandvoort. It should be noted, however, that the Silverstone team is on both cars returned to the previous background the updates from Austin, after the two drivers had lapped in different configurations in Mexico to carry out comparative tests. Setting aside the important developments in Texas, even if only momentarily, is certainly not an encouraging sign, raising doubts that the English team is having to deal with correlation problems with the wind tunnel.
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