The debate on the comparison between electric and petrol cars touches on various fronts, from the ecological aspect to the engineering one. Among these, the issue of the total maintenance cost stands out, including the purchase and ordinary expenses. The International Energy Agency has made available on its website a program with which to estimate the total cost of a battery-powered car to compare it with that of a hybrid or thermal car, taking into consideration the various cost items such as purchase cost, taxes, financing, insurance , electricity, maintenance and resale revenues. It is an extremely simplified software, not being able to analyze every single model on the market or variables such as the trend in fuel and energy prices over the long term. However, the results obtained offer useful references for tracing the conditions of economic parity between electric and petrol vehicles.
The simulations were conducted assuming an annual mileage of 10,000 kilometers and imposing a fixed fuel cost of 1.70 euros per litre. The cost of electricity is another variable that is difficult to assume, given the sudden changes in prices, especially in Italy, following the outbreak of war in the Ukraine. In line with market values in mid-January 2023, it was decided to set an electricity cost of 0.20 euro/kWh. Lastly, as a type of car, a medium-sized car was selected as an option. However, the purchase price of the vehicle does not take into account surcharges due to import taxes, registration and CO2 emissions, the rates of which vary from market to market. The resulting cost therefore appears underestimated compared to the actual value, but the same simplification is applied to both electric and petrol models. Consulting the results, in addition to the foreseeable differences in terms of purchase cost and recharging/refueling costs, it stands out that insurance alone for a battery-powered vehicle costs 50% more than the thermal counterpart. As regards the total maintenance cost, assuming a deferred payment with car financing, after five years there is the maximum difference in expenditure between the two types, with the cost of the thermal equal to 23,700 euros against 29,700 for the electric . After ten years, however, the simulation returns a total cost of 32,650 euros for the car with a combustion engine, about 2200 euros less than the corresponding electric vehicle.
In the comparison between the electric car and the corresponding full-hybrid version, however, the battery-powered model involves a higher initial cost, but reaching parity within eight years. At the end of the decade, the comparison between electric and hybrid is respectively 34,800 euros against 36,000 euros. The plug-in counterpart turns out to be the most expensive of the available options. Assuming an electric mileage equal to 20% of the total, the total maintenance cost is 36,700 euros, about 4,000 more than the petrol version.
By varying the parameter of the annual mileage instead, the economic parity in ten years between thermal and electric is reached at 13,000 km per year, while at 20,000 km per year, the balance is anticipated six years after purchase, with a saving of 3,600 euros at the end of the decade. Finally, in the extreme case of 50,000 kilometers traveled each year, the petrol version entails a total maintenance cost of 76,600 euros over ten years, significantly higher than the 46,200 euros of a battery-powered car.
An attempt was also made to evaluate the changes in the projections assuming a lower cost of electricity. In the period preceding the outbreak of the Italian war, the price in Italy was around 0.05 euro/kWh, equivalent to 0.054 USD/kWh. However, the International Energy Agency software does not allow for a value lower than 0.08 USD/kWh, which was therefore used for the second simulation. In this scenario, the electric car and the thermal one are approaching breakeven in ten years of life already with an annual mileage of 10,000 km, with an excess for the battery-powered model of just 450 euros.
Finally, total maintenance costs were simulated starting from a scenario set ten years in the future, assuming progress by the industry. Since it was not possible to foresee the variations in energy and fuel prices, the parameters were 0.20 euro/kWh for electricity and 1.70 euro/litre for petrol, with an annual mileage of 10,000 km. The projection this time is clearly in favor of the battery model, with parity already achieved at the time of purchase and a total maintenance cost of 28,800 euros over ten yearsagainst the 32,400 euros for the petrol version.
In conclusion, although underestimated due to the simplifications made, the results of the simulations are still useful for reference. However, the comparison is extremely variable based on the individual parameters assumed, the uncertainty of which increases above all in future projections. Even more than the absolute numerical results, therefore, it is interesting to note how the economic parity between electric and petrol at present is reached in a reasonable time only with high annual mileage. However, as annual mileage increases, long-haul journeys probably also correspond, with consequent difficulty in recharging the vehicle en route without excessively long stops. However, the economic situation for battery-powered cars is set to improve over the next decade. At the same cost for energy supplythe total cost of owning an electric vehicle could drop by several thousand euros. Electricity prices will continue to have an influence when compared to petrol models, although the big difference will still depend on the purchase price.
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