This Friday, March 1, more than 60 million Iranians were called to vote in the first legislative elections after the large anti-government demonstrations due to the death of the young Kurdish Mahsa Amini, which occurred in 2022. These elections will allow the political-religious elite measure its popularity in a context of political, economic and social crisis. The results, which will probably be known on Saturday, March 2, could show high abstentionism as the main protagonist of the day.
Iranians went to the polls this March 1, after three years of intense protests, especially those that occurred after the death in police custody of the young Kurdish woman, Mahsa Amini, on September 16, 2022. Amini was arrested by the Morality police, accused of violating the Islamic dress code.
The Parliamentary votes are dominated by the conservatives and in the midst of popular discontent that threatens low participation. The supreme leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei was the first to cast his ballot, after which he urged citizens to vote to “disappoint” the “enemies.”
Iranians elect, among 15,200 candidates, who will occupy 290 seats in Parliament. Also elect the 88 clerics of the Assembly of Experts, body that is elected every eight years and that could play a determining role in the next period, given that Khamenei is 84 years old.
Among the legislative candidates, there is only1,713 women and a few reformist politicians, who have called for a boycott.
These calls place greater pressure on the government, whose theocracy largely defends its legitimacy by holding elections.
Elections marked by widespread social discontent
These are the first votes after the massive protests that Amini's death triggered.
Protests over Amini quickly escalated into calls to overthrow Iran's clerical rulers. Security forces responded with a crackdown that killed more than 500 people, another 22,000 were detained.
This political instability added to multiple crises, especially at the economic level, threatens abstention as a protest mechanism. The last legislative elections, held in 2020, saw a record low turnout of 43%, and leaders fear it could be lower this year.
Although the election of parliamentarians is not important in Iran's presidential system, which depends on the hierarchy of Islamic clerics, the lack of support for more than 15,000 candidates who aspire to one of the 290 seats of the Islamic Consultative Assembly (Parliament) would be a blow to the legitimacy of the system.
Aware of this, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was the first to go to the polls to encourage, together with the Iranian rulers, a high turnout against the opposition's call for a boycott and the general apathy of voters. From his polling station, the supreme leader sent a message to the nation.
Both the friends who love the Iranian people and the evil ones closely observe our country and the affairs of our esteemed nation. Pay attention to this: make friends happy and disappoint ill-wishers
Khamenei described these elections as an “existential referendum” and the eventual abstention as “a threat from foreign powers.”
What is at stake in Iran's legislative elections?
The conservatives, allies of President Ebrahim Raisi and leader Khamenei, are expected to strengthen their control of Parliament.
Although there are 15,000 candidates qualified to be eligible, only 116 are not considered allies of the government. Nearly 34,000 candidates were disqualified. Among them, the majority are reformists and moderates, which provoked condemnation and boycott by opposition parties.
Candidates are selected by the Guardian Council, whose members are chosen directly by Khamenei.
A circle of power questioned as “undemocratic” by non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and by well-known activists, such as Narges Mohammadi, the imprisoned Nobel Peace Prize winner and defender of women's rights. For Mohammadi these elections are a “farce.”
Parliament terms last four years and five seats are reserved for Iran's religious minorities.. Under the law, Parliament oversees the executive branch, votes on treaties and handles other matters. However, in practice, absolute power in Iran resides in its supreme leader.
Hardliners have controlled Parliament for the past two decades, but have recently had to address discussion of social struggles such as women's rights.
Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, a former Revolutionary Guard general, supported a violent crackdown on Iranian university students in 1999. Bagher Qalibaf's legislature has focused on ratifying mandatory headscarves for women.
Bagher Qalibaf's Parliament has also maintained a strong stance on international affairs. Although in practice the legislative branch has no major influence on foreign relations, lawmakers voted on a bill in 2020 that greatly restricts Tehran's cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency. .
A decision that encouraged the United States' subsequent unilateral withdrawal from Iran's nuclear deal with world powers in 2018, unleashing years of tensions in the Middle East. Iran has been accused for several years of working on the manufacture of nuclear weapons.
Economic crisis in Iran, main threat to the stability of the regime?
While social demands for change and geopolitics are general interests of Iranians, the economy is the central focus for most.
Voters are worried about rising inflation, which in 2023 was around 50%. The Iranian economy has been greatly affected by various factors, the main ones: the Covid-19 pandemic and US sanctions. Due to the crisis, many Iranians have had to make severe cuts to their domestic budgets.
“There are many problems, too many problems,” said a female voter, who added that “the criticism will cause those responsible to start thinking about the citizens.”
According to the protests and the atmosphere on the streets, a large number of Iranians no longer believe that the ruling clerics are capable of solving the economic crisis also caused by mismanagement and corruption. However, there are also those who recognize the problems and maintain a slight hope in the rulers.
With Reuters, AP and local media
#Elections #Iran #Islamic #Republic #measures #forces #elections #massive #protests