The security strategy implemented since March 2022 by the president of The Savior, Nayib Bukelein its purpose of fighting against the gangs that led that country to be one of the most violent in the world with homicide figures that reached 106 per 100,000 inhabitants during 2015according to official statistics, has been one of the most questioned by international organizations and the media due to the violation of human rights that have occurred in their bid to impose a heavy hand.
But, the truth is that seven years later, the Central American nation recorded about 7.8 murders per 100,000 inhabitants last year, a fact that has Bukele, who will seek re-election although experts say that the Constitution prohibits it, with a popularity of more than 90% and which has raised the regional question of how feasible it is to adopt the so-called ‘Bukele Model’ and what are its main risks.
Experts and journalists discussed this issue this week in the ‘America Speaks: United to inform ourselves better’ forum held by TIME in El Salvador together with La Prensa Gráfica, one of the main Central American newspapers.
“Violence in Latin America represents a general concern for governments. A third of all homicides in the world occur in this region,” said Ernesto Cortés, general editor of EL TIEMPO, during the opening of the event. Cortés also moderated the panel called: ‘Strategies to confront violence: what is happening in El Salvador’, which had the participation of four experts.
The forum sought to shed light on solutions to confront crime and its associated scourges, such as homicides, extortion and micro-trafficking. This is because Latin American countries invest resources and efforts in their goal of building solid democracies.
In fact, almost three percent of the GDP that the nations of the region allocate for infrastructure projects are having to be diverted from the coffers of the States for the security area, Cortés assured.
Furthermore, a recent study of the Organization of American States indicated that “citizens perceive insecurity as one of the main problems of their societies.”
The ‘Bukele Model’
For 19 months, El Salvador established an emergency regime that has led to the arrest of more than 73,000 gang members. The measure allows authorities to detain suspected members of these gangs without a court order.
Violence in Latin America represents a widespread concern for governments. One third of all homicides in the world occur in this region
To achieve this, the State has been building megaprisons to subject these people to a strict prison regime, something that citizens value as positive. However, the same humanitarian organizations have criticized the measure because innocent people end up being arrested in the process. In fact, in these almost two years, El Salvador has had to free about 7,000 people.
However, some Latin American political sectors have wanted to “import” the Salvadoran model.
This was the case, for example, of Jan Topic, the former presidential candidate of Ecuador who was called the ‘Ecuadorian Bukele’.
This outsider went from being an unknown political figure in his country to obtaining 14% of the votes – a fourth place – during the first presidential round of the extraordinary elections on August 20 thanks to his “strong hand” speech in a country where fighting drug violence was the central axis of the campaign.
Even in Central America, admirers of these initiatives have also emerged. In Guatemala, the former candidate Sandra Torres He even praised Bukele during his campaign. And, in Honduras, the president Xiomara Castro He launched partial “states of exception” inspired by the Salvadoran president’s model to confront crime.
Model to replicate?
The following participated in the forum held by this newspaper: Ignacio Cano, researcher at the Social Research Institute of the National Autonomous University of Mexico (Unam); the Salvadoran lawyer Tahnya Pastor; the researcher and academic Carlos Carcach; and the head of La Prensa Gráfica, Edwin Segura, who discussed whether a model like Bukele’s could be replicated in other Latin American countries.
On the one hand, lawyer Pastor assured that the measures implemented in her country have “empowered citizens” and have placed emphasis on the victims and not on the perpetrators in a country that, in her opinion, had a “hyper-guarantee” justice that made the process of prosecuting gang members complex.
“The so-called Bukele model is not written, it is still being adjusted and we should not demonize it for the shortcomings we have had. It must be improved, especially on the issue of human rights,” he added.
For his part, Segura acknowledged that the population “is satisfied with the results of the emergency regime,” but that the negative remains that many captured are people who “have nothing to do with it.” “Salvadorans were subjected to the violent authoritarianism of the gangs. Now they are willing to accept that they will be under the authoritarianism of the State,” he said.
The so-called Bukele model is not written, it is still being adjusted and we should not demonize it for the shortcomings we have had. It must be improved, especially in the area of human rights
However, although analysts agreed that although the “iron fist” has shown results, the complaints from NGOs raise concerns about the guarantee of safeguarding human rights.
And the exception regime allows arrests without court orders, with which the “presumption of innocence” has disappeared from the country in these almost two years. By the way, Cano said that by not existing this presumption “the rule of law is being put to an end” and “stifling” democracy.
Cano also warned that “all ‘iron fist’ policies end up strengthening criminal structures” and tend to provoke resentment “in the most popular classes.”
“There is a mistake in the concept of the ‘hard hand’. What is needed is an ‘effective hand’. We do not know how many of the 70,000 detainees are innocent because there is no due judicial process. This generates resentment in popular communities and could end up turning against society,” the researcher said.
In contrast, Pastor considers that on the ground the reality of people is very different. “They are not going to eat from the rule of law” and that for those who live outside their country “it is very easy to criticize Bukele.” “In the regions the situation is very different,” he said.
Carcach, meanwhile, assured that, although many governments in the region want to imitate the “Bukelist model,” crime and violence are usually cyclical processes that tend to decrease and increase.
The academic explained that, after a period, the spaces left free by gang members will once again be occupied by other criminal groups, which is why structural solutions are required to address the causes that cause crime.
Experts agreed that homicide rates began to decline in El Salvador even before the emergency regime, following this “cyclical” logic of crime.
“The reduction in homicides has not been immediately after or directly linked to the emergency regime. There was a reduction between 2015 and 2018, when it was reduced by half and then by a third between 2018 and 2021. Until reaching the figure of seven homicides per 100,000 inhabitants last year,” Segura stated.
“In that sense, what Bukele’s emergency regime has achieved is to keep homicides in single digits,” Pastor explained. In contrast, Cano considered that, although the measure has been in force for almost two years, it is “unsustainable” to maintain it indefinitely.
The experts called for “rethinking” the current approach and considering more effective solutions in the long term, given that the current “iron fist” model risks undermining democratic principles and creating long-term problems.
By the way, Humans Rights Watch assured that “since taking office in 2019, President Bukele and his allies have adopted drastic measures to co-opt the democratic institutions” of El Salvador.
Focus on victims
The panel highlighted the importance of focusing on victims and strengthening judicial institutions to improve criminal investigation and obtaining solid evidence.
“If there were conclusive judicial evidence (against the gang members) no one would be criticizing Bukele’s policy, the problem is that you don’t know who is responsible and who is not.”
And, from the perspective of the experts convened by EL TIEMPO, for this to change, comprehensive policies are needed that address the structural causes of violence, such as social inequality and the lack of state presence.
“Improving criminal investigation to have conclusive evidence, prosecuting those who after due process are determined to be criminals and executing social reintegration programs is key,” Cano stated.
INTERNATIONAL EDITORIAL
TIME
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