First modification:
Surprisingly, the Venezuelan economy has begun to show signs of improvement after almost a decade of contraction, hyperinflation, changes in the monetary cone and, practically, a de facto dollarization. The International Monetary Fund estimated in its forecasts to July 2022 a growth for Venezuela of 1.5%. While the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) said it would be 5%. What is this economic growth due to? We discussed it in our discussion.
Figures from the Venezuelan Finance Observatory state that Venezuela’s estimated growth would be 12.3% in the first half of the year. But Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s controversial president, said the economy grew by double digits in the first half of 2022, without giving a specific figure.
However, the numbers raise questions. The Central Bank of Venezuela has not reported data on GDP since 2019. For this reason, it is not possible to contrast the information, compare the figures or see indicators and economic performance by sector. Regardless of the figures, they are far from the economic values of Venezuela in 2012, when it was the fourth largest economy in Latin America behind Brazil, Mexico and Argentina
What are the reasons for this economic growth?
There are several points that could explain the economic boom in Venezuela: increase in oil prices, increase in the number of remittances that arrive in the country from the almost 6 million Venezuelans who have emigrated, in addition to more and better conditions for access to bank credits. One could even speak of a change in the course of the economic policy of the government led by Nicolás Maduro.
Added to this scenario is a golden opportunity: the oil and gas crisis that Europe is experiencing by reducing dependence on Russian supplies. Crisis that could worsen in a few months with the start of boreal winter.
How needy and willing is Europe to soften the relationship with Maduro just because of the need for gas and oil and how would this affect Venezuela? Why is the Venezuelan economy growing and how real is that growth? How is this growth perceived within the country? We analyze it from the hand of our guests:
– Tamara Herrera, director of Financial Synthesis.
– Giorgio Cunto Morales, senior economist in ecoanalytics and professor of statistics at the Andrés Bello Catholic University.
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