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Although the war in Ukraine is having a strong impact on the world economy, the so-called “Rich Countries Club” points out that in some Latin American countries, oil and mineral exports will help overcome the crisis.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) believes that world growth this year will be limited to 3%, when at the beginning of April it was estimated at 4.5%, as a consequence of the war in Ukraine and the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic.
In its semi-annual Outlook report published this Wednesday, June 8, the agency highlights that, despite the slowdown in the economy, growth will remain solid in some countries that depend on mining-energy exports.
One of the most representative cases is Colombia, where foreign sales of crude oil and minerals “will benefit from high global prices, at least temporarily,” which will support investment in these sectors.
The Colombian economy grew by 10.6% in 2021, driven by the reactivation of productive activity after the 2020 recess due to the pandemic. The OECD highlights that the prices of raw materials have improved “trade conditions” and support fiscal results.
Chile, Brazil and Mexico, with pessimistic prospects
Just as Colombia and Argentina would perform better this year than was expected six months ago, other large economies in the region will suffer more severely from the indirect impact of the war.
The growth forecast for the Chilean economy fell from the 3.5% estimated last December to 1.4% due to the “withdrawal of the fiscal stimulus, the drop in real wages driven by strong inflationary pressures and the tightening of financial conditions” .
In Brazil, the expansion of the economy would slow down “significantly” in 2022, by which time growth of 0.6% is expected as a result of high inflation and rising interest rates.
Meanwhile, for Mexico, the growth forecast for this year is no longer 2.3%, but 1.9% by the OECD, which warned of a lag in the consumption of services and private investment compared to levels prepandemic.
With EFE and Reuters
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