Draghi Government: the balance of the first 12 months
It’s only been a year, but it seems like an eternity. The February 12, 2021, Mario Draghi went up to the Quirinale to dissolve the reserve and accept the saving mission entrusted to him by Sergio Mattarella: to put order in the jumble of Italian politics, taking the helm of a country hit by the government crisis triggered by Matteo Renzi. Announced as “The government of the best”, the new executive was born with a very precise mandate: to guide the implementation of the Recovery Plan and to complete the vaccination campaign. How different is today’s scenario, especially after the quirinal ambitions of the same Super Mario have gone up in smoke!
Let’s go in order, starting with the vaccination campaign. The former President of the ECB has staked everything on General Son, thanks to whose work today we have 81.95% of citizens vaccinated with the first dose, while on the third dose we stop at 60.41%. Also counting the single-dose vaccine and the cured ones, 85.16% of the Italian population counts on at least partial protection. All the numbers of the pandemic portend a positive turning point, except one, but certainly not irrelevant: the high number of deaths raises several questions, even in a country with an advanced average age like ours. Since not even science has yet been able to give an explanation on the matter, we suspend the judgment.
In the economic fieldin the much vaunted charisma of Draghi the real guarantee required by Europe to make Italy the main beneficiary of the Recoverybut its “grounding” is far from assured, which is beginning to worry. There are 55 reforms which will serve to get to the end of the process, a decidedly difficult goal for a government that has only one year of residual mandate ahead of it, with inevitable pre-electoral clashes in the majority-Harlequin who supports it.
More generally, the vaunted concreteness of Draghi, post-ideological leader, led to a paean chorus for the + 6.5% recorded by our GDP every year. The numbers do not lie, but they must be analyzed and contextualized. First of all, the dramatic decline of the previous year (-9%) certainly had an impact, with respect to which subsequent growth represents a rebound phenomenon. You cannot limit yourself to looking at the number indicated in the last line of the report, when in the meantime they get out of hand the fundamental matches for the real country.
The reference is undoubtedly to the numerous companies in difficultya landscape that is becoming dramatic due to the energy crisis which has led to unsustainable levels the bills borne by both households and businesses. Although the phenomenon is worldwide, the Italian specific is determined by a marked dependence on imports, which could only have been dealt with with a energy policy worthy of the name. Solving the problem may not, but certainly we could begin. Instead there has been a lot of talk about environmental transition (moreover doing little) and almost none of the tools needed to bring about change. The mere 5% of the NRP reserved for the energy issue will hardly be decisive.
In a framework in which some technical ministers (the famous “best” above) caused more discussion than the reviled political ministers, Draghi was not much helped to meet the enormous expectations that had anticipated his advent. Not even the most ardent fans and the most genuflected journalists can deny that just this year we have returned to look at the trend of the spread, which in twelve months went from 90 to 166 basis points. A dynamic certainly influenced by various factors and certainly not attributable to the Premier, but at the same time yet another proof that it is not enough to evoke its name to drive away the ghosts that disturb us. And anyway it is precisely in the days of the possible move of Draghi to the Quirinale that the changes have become disturbing.
The fact that the very idea that Draghi could leave Palazzo Chigi has thrown all the parties into panic says more about the state of health of the policy than the effective effectiveness of a government beaten by Mattarella for the little space left for Parliament and by thousands of students for school choices. Yet there are still those who make irony about the Dpcm of Giuseppe Conte and the wheeled benches of Lucia Azzolina! The fact is that political cycles are getting shorter and more exhausting for those who pass through them as a protagonist. “Power wears out those who don’t have it,” he said Giulio Andreotti, but that was the First Republic: a completely different story, from all points of view. Power seems deadly to its owner today, even if you’re something of a superhero like Draghi.
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