Donald Trump: why California plays an important role in his candidacy?

In the race towards the republican primaries, California is a crucial stronghold for candidates, with 169 delegates at stake. According to a recent survey by UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (Berkeley IGS), 67 percent of Republican voters in California express their preference for Donald Trumpwhich could give him a significant advantage at this crucial stage of the contest.

Data collected by Berkeley IGS and replicated by Telemundo reveal that Support for Trump has seen a notable increase from 57 percent in October to 67 percent in January among Republican voters in California. This growth in the former president's popularity could be decisive in his attempt to secure the 169 delegates that this state grants, making him a clear favorite for Republicans in the region.

A fundamental change in the rules of the Republican Party in California adds an element of tension to the primaries. Now, all 169 delegates will be allocated to the candidate who receives more than 50 percent of the votes. This rule could considerably benefit Trump if he manages to maintain his current level of support.

Despite the former president's solid position, other Republican candidates such as Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis are trying to gain ground. According to the poll, Haley has 11 percent support, while DeSantis has lost popularity, remaining at 8 percent.

General election outlook: Trump regains ground in California

On a general level, the popularity of the current president, Joe Biden, has decreased in California. Certain changes in the support of young people and Latinos towards the Democrat could open strategic opportunities for Trump.

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In a hypothetical scenario with five candidates, Biden leads with a 16 percent advantage over Trump in California. However, the presence of third-party candidates could alter the picture, especially considering that only 40 percent of voters under 30 have a positive opinion of Biden.

Independent candidates like Kennedy and West also enter the equation. Kennedy enjoys 31 percent approval and is received more positively by Republicans, which could further fragment electoral support. The Berkeley IGS survey was conducted Jan. 4-8, with an estimated margin of error of 2 percent.