The spot dollar ended the session this Friday, 9, down 0.97%, quoted at R$ 4.8763 – below R$ 4.90 for the first time since May 15 and at the lowest closing value since June 7, 2022. Traders reported inflows of trade and cash, both for domestic equities and fixed income. The mode retreated in five of the last six trading sessions and, down 1.54% in the week, has already accumulated a devaluation of 3.88% in June.
The real benefited from the wave of risk appetite abroad amid the prospect of interruption of interest rate hikes in the US at the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting (Fed, the US BC) next week and the adoption of stimuli by the Chinese government . Emerging currencies and those of commodity-exporting countries rose en bloc, although two pairs of the real (Chilean and Colombian pesos) clashed. A benchmark for the behavior of the dollar against six major currencies, the DXY index had a slight rise, with gains against the yen and the euro, in an adjustment after yesterday’s fall, when it returned to trading below the 104,000-point line.
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Added to the favorable external scenario is a more positive domestic backdrop, which combines a slowdown in inflation, improved growth expectations and a reduction in the risk of an explosive path for public debt, with the accelerated processing of the proposal for a new fiscal framework in Congress. There was also a decrease in political noise, in view of the lower number of criticisms by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the conduct of monetary policy and signs of rapprochement between the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank.
Banco Pine’s Chief Economist, Cristiano Oliveira, notes that, in general, emerging market currencies have appreciated in the last two days due to a combination of US and Chinese indicators. The real, which had been suffering more than its peers, presented today, on its return to business, the best performance among the most relevant emerging currencies.
“The market prices that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged next week and that China can promote more easing (loosening)”, says Oliveira, who maintains the forecast that the local exchange rate will fluctuate between R$ 4.85 and R$ 4.95 in the coming months, returning to “stabilize at R$ 5.00 at the end of the year”.
Yesterday, it was disclosed that the new applications for unemployment aid in the USA, in the week ended on the 3rd, grew by 28 thousand, to 261 thousand, well above the forecast of analysts, of 240 thousand. In China, however, there was a lower than expected reading of the consumer price index (CPI) and deflation of the producer price index (PPI), both referring to May.
Economist André Galhardo, economic consultant at Remessa Online, observes that, despite the surprise with the increase in interest rates by the central banks of Canada and Australia this week, the perspective is still that the Fed will not announce a new increase in the American basic rate. “Data for new unemployment insurance claims came in strong yesterday, when it was a holiday in Brazil. This endorses the possibility of the Fed taking a break from raising interest rates next week, which will help currencies like the real,” says Galhardo, for whom the trend is still for the dollar to fall in the domestic market.
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