The opportunism of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador yielded significant results. Well, at least in the short term, by defending three dictatorships and saying that if they are not invited to participate in the Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles in three weeks, he will not attend. López Obrador took part in the diplomatic negotiations carried out by a dozen Latin American governments since last December to convene them, he made them his own, took it as an ideological mission and publicized it. Hoarse-chested diplomacy in the morning had its effect. As the resistance in the subcontinent became social, he got President Joe Biden into a fray.
The resistance of the Caribbean countries for the exclusion of Cuba, had no traction. The warning of Antigua and Barbuda’s ambassador to the White House and the OAS, Ronald Sanders, on April 29, that if it was not invited, the 14 Caricom countries -which have strong ties with Havana- would not participate, passed without greater concern until on May 10, López Obrador joined the claim. It coincided with the information from Brasilia that President Jair Bolsonaro, who has not had contact with Biden since he became head of the White House, but has approached the Kremlin, was considering not traveling to Los Angeles, but did not generate alarm in Washington.
López Obrador’s conditioning put him in open contradiction with the Biden government, which does not seem to have expected a threat of boycott like the one made to him from the National Palace a week ago. López Obrador should not say he was surprised at what the United States was doing, unless Foreign Secretary Marcelo Ebrard kept him in the dark about what he was proposing, and that was outlined by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in a speech on May 3 at the 52nd Annual Conference of the Americas, of the influential Council of the Americas in New York, where he stated:
“We must avoid falling into blocks of the left or right, liberal or conservative, and focus instead on seeing what unites us with democracies. This means recognizing our common interests in strengthening the pillars of our free and open societies, such as respect for the rule of law, human rights, and an independent and vibrant press.”
Blinken added that they needed a shared drive toward autocracies in the region, including support from those groups within those nations who fight for freedom. His position, which is that of Biden, could not be more the opposite of López Obrador, who has remained silent in the face of the repression of dissent in Cuba – even these days when he toughened his authoritarian measures – nor did he say anything about the persecution of his opponents in the presidential campaign and the fraudulent elections that led to the re-election of Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua. He also never recognized Juan Guaidó as president of Venezuela, and maintained his support for Nicolás Maduro.
López Obrador’s head-on clash with Biden is stronger than it seems. Having resorted to the diplomacy of shouting and the morning trumpet closed the room for maneuver for Biden, whose Secretary of State has been quite inefficient in managing relations with Latin America, aggravated by the petulance and inability to establish good relations with Juan González, the person in charge of Latin America and the Caribbean in the National Security Council of the White House. The problems he is having with the convening of the Summit of the Americas do not stem from López Obrador’s position, but from the lack of a foreign policy in the region.
However, López Obrador’s position galvanized discontent, having been formulated after a trip to Havana, as if he had been the messenger of Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel. It wasn’t, but he seemed like it. Cuba’s allies in the region joined López Obrador, who took advantage of Biden’s weakness and political vulnerability, reflected in the approval of 43.4% of Americans, five tenths below Donald Trump, who wants to be president once again in 2024. The tenant of the National Palace is far from being a determining figure in the US electoral process, but not so in the consequences that this may have in the long term.
The conditioning of López Obrador to his participation in the Summit benefits Trump politically, whatever the outcome. If his chair is occupied by Ebrard, he will have been a milestone for his business partner and his ally in containing migration. If he finally attends, it will have been after concessions by Biden to those three nations, of which only Cuba would be in objective conditions to attend. Maduro could not travel because there is an active process against him and he will not want to risk being arrested. Ortega is not in that extreme situation, but the US government has frozen assets of his family, whom he has accused of laundering money.
Unable to resolve the matter, the United States ambassador to Mexico, Ken Salazar, Biden and Blinken dispatched to Mexico the special adviser for the Summit and one of those who chairs it, Christopher Dodd, a politician with long experience and great knowledge of Mexico. , although not from López Obrador, with whom he will talk today. The visit will be critical for the Summit and no one can know how it will end.
For now, in the short term, the opportunism of the Mexican president has been successful and if the call were to be changed, he could claim a victory for himself by having made Biden eat his words and rectify the invitations. But for the same reason, it is a bitter drink that will not be forgotten. We will probably see the consequences not for a long time. Exchanging national interests for three dictatorships is something that will not be forgotten.
#diplomacy #hoarse #chest