Crisis in Ukraine Finnish Special Representative for the conflict in eastern Ukraine: Worrying and becoming more and more worrying

Worrying and is becoming more and more worrying.

Roughly so, the ambassador Mikko Kinnunen evaluates the ones that attracted a lot of attention for the rest of the week ceasefire violations and the conflict situation in eastern Ukraine.

Kinnunen, who worked at the Foreign Ministry’s bakery for 25 years, moved from a very central place last autumn to observe the crisis in Ukraine, which is now being discussed all over the world.

He is the Special Representative of the Chair of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in Ukraine and of the so-called Tripartite Contact Group, which is trying to resolve the conflict in eastern Ukraine.

“Yesterday was a matter of concern, especially given the wider security situation, ie what is happening around Ukraine and Belarus,” Kinnunen said in a telephone interview from his office in Kiev on Friday.

“There is always a danger of provocation and the escalation that may result from provocation. In that sense, I wouldn’t like to see them like they were yesterday. ”

After the interview, there was still more worrying news coming from Eastern Ukraine.

Donetsk and Luhansk region separatist leaders announcedthat civilians are being evacuated to Russia, according to Reuters.

Kinnunen announced that he would convene an extraordinary meeting of the tripartite group in the evening.

Read more: Ukrainian Foreign Minister says separatists have also fired an armored car – Parties accuse each other of bombing in eastern Ukraine

Kinnusen at the heart of the work is a 480-kilometer-long so-called hotline between the Ukrainian-Russian-backed separatist-held areas, Luhansk and Donetsk.

It was around that line that ceasefire violations accelerated on Thursday.

Exceptionally active firefighting was reported in the area. Grenades had been fired, for example, at Stanyts in the village of Luhansk, where the grenade fell into kindergarten.

Kinnunen says that he and his colleagues are currently trying to get an idea of ​​whether this was just an exception or whether the pressure in the Ukrainian crisis would start to move to the Ukrainian contact line.

Now it seems that this is a bigger development, Kinnunen described on Friday night.

In the past winter, the hotline has been relatively calm where tensions have increased in the vicinity of Ukraine’s borders, where Russia has concentrated a large number of its troops.

“The most important thing is that this will not become a new kind of permanent trend,” says Kinnunen.

According to preliminary data from the OSCE Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (SSM), there were 1,100 violations of the ceasefire on Thursday.

The average reading was about 250 at the beginning of the year. On the other hand, last November-December there were about 750 daily readings, he reminds.

“Considering last year’s figures, yesterday’s reading isn’t so awful, but considering this year’s figures, it’s exceptional.”

He emphasizes that the increase in violations could not only lead to an escalation and escalation of the conflict, but also to complicate negotiations to resolve the conflict in eastern Ukraine.

He does not take a position on which side the infringements mainly come from. In his own work, Kinnunen wants to avoid statements that could be seen as biased.

Kinnunen will chair a tripartite contact group in which representatives of Russia, Ukraine and the OSCE will try to find a lasting solution to the conflict in eastern Ukraine. Representatives of the so-called rebel regions of Donetsk and Luhansk will also take part in the talks.

In practice, the tripartite group meets every couple of weeks and negotiates the implementation of the so-called Minsk agreement.

The Minsk II protocol was born between Ukraine and the separatists in February 2015, and was handled by Russia, Germany and France, members of the so-called Normandy Group.

The agreement outlined the special status of the separatist regions of eastern Ukraine as part of Ukraine. In short, however, its implementation has been the subject of major disagreements over the interpretation of the agreement.

Kinnunen believes that all aspects of the Minsk agreements are still relevant and should be implemented.

However, it does not look good.

“Currently, the positions of the parties involved in the negotiations are not close enough. That means that yet, we are not approaching this final solution, ”he says diplomatically.

You still have to try, because there are no alternatives, Kinnunen thinks.

At the moment, the work of the tripartite group is still, according to Kinnunen, more about managing the conflict than actually resolving it. Of course, that is not insignificant either.

“An international presence alone is important to avoid bigger bad things.”

In the presence of OSCE observers play an important role in reporting on ceasefire violations.

However, as the situation escalates, some of the countries participating in the operation have now announced that they will withdraw their observers temporarily. These include according to news agency sources for example, the United States, the Netherlands, and Canada.

How concerned should this be and what impact might it have on the situation?

Kinnunen himself does not work directly with the monitoring mission, but works closely with it. For the time being, he does not find the departure of observers very worrying, although to some extent the role of observers needs to be prioritized.

Usually, the strength of foreign observers is about 800.

“We are still talking about a relatively limited number [lähtijöitä]not more than 20 percent, ”says Kinnunen.

“Right now, the most important thing is that the SSM operation is and will remain and continue to operate.”

16 Finnish observers are still involved in the operation. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs says that the situation is being monitored very closely.

Short At the end of the interview, Kinnunen will discuss the impact of the interest rate crisis on the resolution of the conflict in eastern Ukraine.

The tripartite group last met face-to-face in March 2020. Since then, attempts have been made to reach an agreement in remote meetings.

Kinnunen considers it very important that this be achieved soon. The reason is that peace mediation is not at its best in teams and zooms.

Body language may not be seen, and Kinnunen estimates that people may behave more aggressively than usual when they speak on screen instead of meeting face to face.

“I myself have noticed that people in video conferencing do not genuinely indulge in negotiations, they may be afraid that the meeting will be recorded and that they will find themselves on Youtube.”

In addition, many breakthroughs take place during coffee breaks and corridors outside of formal negotiations, Kinnunen believes.

Therefore, remote meetings should be released now in the spring. As the tension rises, let’s see.

“It may be that this goal needs to be delayed a little.”

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