Electoral political polls today May 4, 2023
POLITICAL ELECTION SURVEYS – Confidence in the Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, is growing. A positive trend that is also reflected in Fratelli d’Italia, which is once again gaining support after a few weeks of decline. And even if it fails to return above the 30% threshold, Meloni’s party still remains at least ten points ahead of the others. This is what emerges from the latest survey by Termometro Politico. Let’s see specifically what would happen if we went back to the polls today.
Brothers of Italy remains firmly the first party in the country, with a slight increase in support which brings it to 29.6%. In second place is the stable Democratic Party at 18.7%: therefore there are more than ten points of distance between the dem and the political strength of the Prime Minister. Instead, the Five Star Movement retreats, which drops to 15.9% and widens the gap (albeit by just three percentage points) with the Democratic Party.
The League is also down, slipping to 9.5%, while Forza Italia rises to 7.7%. The survey by Termometro Politico considers the Third pole separate: after the break between Carlo Calenda and Matteo Renzi, Action is at 4.1% and Italia Viva falls below the threshold at 2.4%. If we went back to voting today, therefore, he would not enter Parliament. The Alliance of Greens and the Left also fell, collapsing to 2.3%. On the other hand, ahead of Avs we find both +Europe, rising to 2.5%, and For Italy with Comparison at 2.4%
HOW POLLS ARE MADE
Electoral and political polls are carried out by polling companies according to precise scientific criteria. The authors of the surveys must identify a sample to be interviewed that is sufficiently large and representative of the population to be analysed. In the case of polls on voting intentions for political parties or the confidence index of political leaders, therefore, the interviewees must adequately represent the adult Italian population, those who have the right to vote and who go to the polls. This work is done to minimize the margin of error and make the detection as reliable as possible.
Usually a political poll is considered reliable if the margin of error indicated is 3 percent with a confidence interval of 95 percent. It is precisely that of identifying a representative sample of the population that the pollsters face the greatest difficulty. Interviews for electoral political polls are usually carried out with a Cati methodology, by telephone, or Cawi, via the Internet, or mixed. To carry out the interviews, opinion poll companies rely on specialized companies.
Read also: All polls
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