When Europe itself closes its borders, the Kremlin gets to keep conscripted men in the country. At the same time, it can accuse others of being anti-Russian, writes HS editor Jussi Konttinen.
Where Russia is trying with its hybrid operation?
The obvious answer is to show Finland the consequences of joining NATO.
Of course, the Kremlin has also calculated what countermeasures Finland will take.
In 2016, Finland reacted mildly: it accepted asylum seekers and sent the then interior minister Petteri Orpon To the paki of the head of the FSB to beg for mercy.
In 2023, Finland has changed. The government and its basic Finnish interior minister Mari Rantanen closed the busiest crossing points of the eastern border completely at once. In the background, the president traumatized by the events of 2016 had an effect Sauli Niinistö.
The severity of the response may have surprised Russia, but it was hardly unexpected.
One the theory is that Russia actually wants to close the borders to its citizens.
In that case, it is much more comfortable to let the EU countries do it for them. Even pro-Western Russians are shocked by the decision, and at the same time the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov can empathize with their pain.
This would naturally fit in with the fact that in July Russia unexpectedly announced the closure of the Finnish Consulate General in St. Petersburg. The Consulate General issued the most visas to Finland in the whole world.
Finland itself stopped issuing tourist visas to Russians last year, but Russia’s decision on the consulate general was the final blow to Russians traveling to Finland.
to Russia closing the borders is fine if it is going to turn into a closed police state like the Soviet Union. Conscripted men don’t sneak off to the West, and other citizens don’t get to absorb harmful influences either.
The theory is not without gaps. Russia’s borders are still open to Turkey, Georgia, Kazakhstan and other countries, to which a large number of Russian men have fled the campaign.
If Russia were to start a massive mobilization after the presidential elections in March, it would have to catch those borders as well.
In addition, the Kremlin is shooting itself in the foot by making it more difficult to smuggle products subject to sanctions from Finland across the land border.
But it is hard to believe that Russia would not have taken into account the possibility that Finland would close its borders.
Program director of the Foreign Policy Institute Arkady Mošes reminds that Russia can in any case turn the outcome in its favor.
If the border remains open, Russia can show Europe’s weakness by feeding in asylum seekers. If the border closes, Russia gets to accuse the EU country of being anti-Russian and gets to keep the reserves at home.
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