This column started one way and ended another. Of course, in our space of international politics, the subject would be the invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation. The constant updating of information and the speed of events, however, meant that the column had to change all the time and, it is known, it goes on the air at the risk of obsolescence soon. One of the reasons for this speed is what we are going to explain here to the readers, the Russian strategy of a decapitation attack.
The most recent column had been published shortly after Vladimir Putin’s February 21 speech, in which, in addition to criticizing the very idea of Ukraine’s existence as a separate nation from Russia, he directed the Russian parliament to recognize regions controlled by pro-Russian separatists in the Don River basin. Recognition was met with statements of repudiation by other powers and an emergency UN Security Council meeting. It looked like it would be “just” another episode of application of the Karaganov Doctrineexplained on that and other occasions, namely, an armed interference under the justification of protecting ethnic Russians outside the borders of the Russian Federation.
Invasion
The situation changed, in Brazilian time, on the night of the 23rd to the 24th of February. During a UNSC meeting, Russian forces did not limit themselves to the Don territory, but invaded Ukrainian territory on three fronts. To the south, through Crimea, to the north, through the triple border with Belarus, and to the east, through separatist-controlled regions. Add to that the fact that Russian forces are also in the Transnistria region, in Moldova, to the west, and we have a Ukraine not only besieged, but unable to concentrate its defense forces on just one front, suffering from a “short blanket” . There is also a maritime blockade on major Ukrainian ports such as Odessa and Mariupol.
Even with Russian military superiority, there were still, and still are, several unknowns. One is: would Russia be ready to commit to a long-term conflict, on the territory of the largest country located entirely in Europe? Occupying Ukraine would be no simple task, and Ukrainian forces are surprising the Russians at several points. The option would be for the Russians to limit themselves to the two oblasts in the east, but why invade then? Advance to the Dnieper River, which divides Ukraine? Finally, events have come to show that the strategy is a decapitation attack on the capital Kiev.
A quick note, before we proceed with the column. For the Ukrainian national identity, in a process of “formation of souls” that was the subject of a column in December, it is important to call the capital Kiev by the Ukrainian spelling, Kyiv. The Brazilian government recognizes and uses the spelling Kiev, and the column spells it out of custom, not out of political support or repudiation of any actor in the conflict. Neither the attacked nor the aggressor. As a curiosity, the spelling in Lusitanian Portuguese is Quieve. Another example is the important city of Kharkov which, in Ukrainian, is spelled as Kharkiv. Or even Kharkov.
Returning, a decapitation attack is, in short, to advance and take the capital as soon as possible. In doing so, it captures or isolates the Ukrainian command, leaving armed forces in the rest of the country without clear guidelines on how to act. Also capturing political leaders, eventually replacing them with people willing to collaborate with the occupiers. It wouldn’t be the first time the Russian military has done this in history. The strategy of the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan in 1979 began like this. On February 24, a fierce fight was announced for the Hostomel air base, on the outskirts of the capital. The capture of the airfield would allow the rapid transport of airborne assault forces, directly targeting the capital.
Chernobyl
While fighting was also taking place in eastern cities such as Sumy and Kharkov near the border, it was surprising that fighting was already in the capital in such a short time. Something completely intentional. Still on the 24th, the mayor of the city, the Former boxer Vitali Klitschko announced a curfew. In addition to the airborne attack, a column was advancing from the north, across the triple border between Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. One of the first objectives of this advance was to take the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, where the remains of the nuclear reactor that exploded in 1986 are, confined in its containment sarcophagus.
Soon, wild theories appeared on the internet to explain the images. Video games and movies were evoked. Was it to prevent Ukraine from having access to radioactive material? No, which would not even make sense, given that Ukraine has four fully operational nuclear plants. Was it to use the rubble in the Russian war effort? No, there are only risks, no benefits, and no one will dare to touch the remains of the biggest nuclear disaster in history. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy tried to use the offensive to his advantage, saying the risks of the Russian attack were a “declaration of war against all of Europe”.
The reason for the Russian advance there was much more pragmatic and prosaic than it might seem. We are talking about a huge area with no permanent settlements, no population, no military bases, just north of the capital Kiev. When reactor four exploded in April 1986, even the flames, with a bluish hue from radiation, could be seen from Kiev. In other words, the Exclusion Zone was a great military “shortcut”, allowing a rapid advance without great resistance towards a siege of the Ukrainian capital. To make the situation worse for the Ukrainians, it allows an advance on both sides of the Dnieper.
“Time is running out”
On the morning of the 25th, shortly before this text went live, the official profile of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry on social media asked the population of Obolon, a district in the northern capital, to resist and “use Molotov cocktails”. A tone of desperation that does not give good signals. Videos of exchanges of fire in the same district quickly emerged, which raises another concern for Ukrainians. The possibility of saboteurs and sympathizers of Russia on its territory, the infamous “fifth column”.
An adviser to Ukrainian President Mikhail Podolyak said the “war must stop” and that his government was ready to negotiate “neutrality” with Russia. Around seven in the morning, Brasília time, the Italian media reported that Mario Draghi, Prime Minister of Italy, stated that he was unable to carry out a videoconference with Zelensky. The Ukrainian president had to seek shelter and said “time was running out”.
The rapid fall of Kiev could mean a new “puppet” government of the Russians, although, for example, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, has already said that the current government would be a puppet of neo-Nazis and the West. In other words, they would not insist on the legitimacy of the current government. Mainly, Russia could argue that in a matter of days and with “only” hundreds dead, the dispute was resolved. Which is far from the truth, since the events of the last few days will still resonate for a few decades, in the economy, in international politics and in the desire for revenge.
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